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European gas: Brexit triggers Dutch, German gas price falls

Dutch and German prices fell Friday morning as the pound plunged against major currencies in response to the UK’s decision to leave the European Union.

By around midday London time, July TTF last dealt 22.5 euro cent lower day on day at Eur14.975/MWh, while the corresponding German GASPOOL and NetConnect front-month contracts stood 22.5 euro cent and 27.5 euro cent down at a Eur14.925/MWh parity.

Winter 16 TTF and NCG both last dealt by around midday London time 25 euro cent down day on day at Eur17.175/MWh and Eur17.35/MWh respectively.

On the spot, day-ahead TTF was down by 25 euro cent to Eur14.85/MWh, while corresponding GASPOOL and NCG were down by 35 euro cent and 17.5 euro cent at Eur14.80/MWh and Eur14.85/MWh.

The euro was trading over 5% higher against the pound day on day by around 1230 London time as traders took flight from the British currency on the decision by 52% of voters in Thursday’s referendum to leave the EU.

Losses have been seen in equity markets and in crude oil markets, with the latter down by over 4% Friday morning in Europe.

Turning to fundamentals, the supply-demand picture was comfortable ahead of a preliminary decision expected Friday on annual production quotas at the Dutch Groningen gas field, with speculation the ceiling could be cut to 24 Bcm from 27 Bcm for the 2016-17 gas year.

Real-time Norwegian flow rates into Emden-Dornum on the Dutch-German border were at just under 140 million cu m/day around midday London time, according to Norwegian transmission systems operator Gassco, slightly up from Thursday.

CustomWeather said temperatures in Amsterdam would be at 2 degrees Celsius above seasonal norms Friday, but are expected to fall to 1-2 degrees Celsius below norms from the weekend.

In Berlin, in the German GASPOOL area, CustomWeather said temperatures were at 10 C above norms Friday and would push back towards seasonal norms from Sunday.

Temperatures in Munich, in the NCG area, were expected to be 5 C above seasonal norms Friday, falling to slightly below norms from Sunday.
Source: Platts

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