FBX Index April 2024: Market summary

The Freightos Baltic Global index fell 22% month on month in March to $2,624/FEU as Lunar New Year demand subsided and ocean carriers have now had time to adjust to the longer routes due to continuing Red Sea diversions, which together have eased pressure on rates. Prices are nonetheless expected to remain elevated, with some estimating that they will remain 1.5 to 2x their norm as long as diversions persist. At the end of March, global rates were 102% higher than in 2019.

These factors saw rates from Asia to N. America West Coast, which peaked last month, fall 22% compared to February to $3,728/FEU, but prices are still 190% above 2019 levels. To the East Coast, rates fell 21% to $5,284/FEU and are 113% higher than in 2019.

Operational improvements for the East Coast included the Panama Canal restrictions easing late in the month, adding back three more daily transits. However, concerns of possible port labour disruptions in October could see some peak season demand pulled forward to earlier in the year. The bridge collapse in Baltimore will divert volumes to other East Coast hubs, which could cause some congestion and upward pressure on rates in the short term.

Prices from Asia to N. Europe likewise fell month on month as adjustments to the Red Sea diversions have taken hold. Prices decreased 30% to $3,189/FEU and are 42% below their peak in late January, but are still 149% above 2019 levels. Rates to the Mediterranean fell 13% to $4,352/FEU and are 33% lower than their peak, but 129% higher than in 2019. Announcements of April FAKs by some carriers suggest rates are reaching the carriers’ hoped-for floor.
Transatlantic rates fell 11% in March from their peak at the end of February to $1,659/FEU. Although trade on this lane is not directly impacted by Red Sea diversions, prices climbed in February as capacity may have been shifted to Red Sea lanes and equipment availability tightened somewhat across markets. Easing rates suggest that operations are stabilising on this lane as well, although possible impacts from the Baltimore bridge collapse, as well as the potential for an ILA strike later in the year, could also be felt on transatlantic trade.
Source: Freightos