FBX Index December 2024: Market summary

Back in early November, Asia – Europe and Mediterranean rates had already started to rebound from the $3,500/FEU, post-peak season floor reached in October, as shippers on these lanes started moving pre-LNY orders earlier than usual this year.
Facing longer transit times around the Cape of Good Hope and more pressure to ship sufficient inventory before the holiday slowdown period, rates continued to climb on early December GRIs on these lanes, though mostly leveled off to close the year.
Asia – N. Europe rates ended December 15% higher than at the end of November at $5,155/FEU, and 128% higher than a year ago. In the Mediterranean, rates increased by 13% to $5,471/FEU and are 161% higher than in 2019.
On the transpacific, rates that had remained level but elevated around the $5,300/FEU mark in November as shippers frontloaded ahead of a possible ILA strike starting January 15th, cooled toward the end of the month and into the first half of December as the arrival window ahead of the strike closed.
But mid-month GRIs supported by the early start of the LNY period and by continued frontloading ahead of expected tariff hikes in 2025 saw prices rebound to close the month.
Asia to N. America West Coast rates, which had dipped to less than $4,000/FEU to start December, rebounded to $4,825/FEU to close the month 6% lower than the end of November but nearly triple levels a year ago. Prices to the East Coast followed the same pattern and closed December at $6,116/FEU for a 2% month-on-month increase.
Carriers are hoping the addition of more pre-LNY demand in January will support further rate hikes to start the new year on GRIs of $1,000 – $3,000/FEU. Despite strong volumes and some signs of strain on rail, operations at US ports remain smooth and operators report being prepared for further volume increases.
Transatlantic rates, which had been stable since about mid-October, dipped 10% late in December to close the month at $2,279/FEU, though still about double a year ago. Despite the recent decline, these rates may increase in January as some carriers have announced disruption surcharges for mid-month in anticipation of an ILA strike. Some are also expecting the February alliance reshuffle to cause some disruptions, with MSC announcing a $2,000/FEU disruption charge starting January 18th for transatlantic containers.
Seasonal decreases in demand post LNY should see rates ease on the ex-Asia lanes, though Red Sea diversions will keep them elevated well above long-term averages just as they were through 2024. A prolonged ILA strike in January would cause congestion and disruptions that could put additional upward pressure on N. America rates, with the seasonal dip in demand, in any case, are likely to be less pronounced than usual as many US shippers may continue to frontload ahead of expected tariff increases.
Source: Freightos, Baltic Exchange