FBX Index November 2024: Market summary

The Freightos Baltic Index Global benchmark increased 9% in November to $3,590/FEU as Asia – Europe GRIs pushed rates up sharply at the start of the month, with some late month increase for Asia – US East Coast as well. This global rate is 178% higher than in 2019.

Asia-Europe ocean freight rates, which post peak season in October, had reverted to April-level lows for the year before surging by 30% to about $4,500/FEU at the start of November as carriers implemented General Rate Increases. To the Mediterranean, rates climbed 41% month on month in November including a late month bump to $4,859/FEU representing a 230% increase compared to 2019.

Carrier motivation to see rates increase as annual contract negotiations get underway on this lane, an increase in blank sailings, diversion-driven longer lead times alongside an approaching early Lunar New Year, as well as reports of some increase in demand may have supported these rate gains. Carriers have announced additional GRIs for December that would push rates above $6,000/FEU, although as mid-month GRIs mostly failed there is some skepticism that additional increases will stick. Carriers have also communicated that new ETS surcharges will likely put upward pressure on rates when they go into effect at the start of the year.

Although transpacific rates typically ease in November, prices had been stable and elevated more than $1,000/FEU above their April lows since mid-October. US West Coast rates dipped 8% month on month in November to $5,122/FEU but are still 287% higher than 2019 levels. Looking at the US East Coast, a late month bump saw rates increase 16% to about $6,000/FEU.

This rate strength, as well as increases in volume projections for November and December, probably reflect some frontloading ahead of both a possible renewed ILA strike at US East Coast and Gulf ports after 15 January – as restarted negotiations this month quickly collapsed over the issue of port automation – and anticipation of Trump administration tariff increases next year.

This rate strength, as well as increases in volume projections for November and December, probably reflect some frontloading ahead of both a possible renewed ILA strike at US East Coast and Gulf ports after 15 January – as restarted negotiations this month quickly collapsed over the issue of port automation – and anticipation of Trump administration tariff increases next year.

Although there do not seem to be indications of frontloading on the transatlantic, rates have been elevated at about $2,5600/FEU since early October compared to the $2,000/FEU level seen in September. This sustained rate level may reflect capacity reduction measures being taken by carriers for this lane.

Mid-month, Canada’s Labor Minister ended the separate labour disputes – one on each coast – that had resulted in lockouts at Canada’s major container ports early in November. Operations resumed before congestion got severe enough to cause a significant impact on the wider regional market.
Source: Freightos