Frac Disclosure Reveals 25% Contraction In The US Fracking Over The Second Half In 2018
As illustrated in the figure the new median estimate for nationwide fracking activity in December 2018 suggests 36 frac jobs per day. Hence, we observe 25% contraction in fracking activity between the peak in May-August 2018 and the end of the last year. It should be noted that in both November and December 2018 fracking activity level exhibits negative year-over-year change.
There is no doubt that significant part of this decline was driven by seasonal weather and capital constraint factors. Yet we keep hearing about somewhat disappointing pace of post-winter recovery. Essentially, service providers largely agree with the fact that recovery is happening now, but the pace of this recovery is slower than what we usually observe. Lower oil price environment along with focus on capital discipline coming from public pure-shale E&Ps is the main explanation behind moderation in activity level.