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German Consumer Sentiment to Improve in December -GfK Survey

German consumer sentiment is set to improve in December, market-research group GfK said Tuesday, amid increased economic and income expectations.

GfK’s forward-looking index is set to rise to 9.7 points in December from 9.6 points for November, GfK said. Economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal had forecast 9.6 points in December.

“The exceptionally high levels of consumer confidence among German consumers have significantly contributed to preventing a recession in Germany in the third quarter,” Rolf Buerkl, GfK’s consumer expert, said.

GfK uses three measures to derive a sentiment figure for the coming month. In November, both economic and income expectation measures went up, while the propensity-to-buy measure fell.

GfK said the level of consumer sentiment was “highly satisfactory” and noted that the propensity to buy remains stable. It said, however, that sentiment is lower compared with December 2018 due to factors such as the global economic downturn, trade conflicts and Brexit uncertainty.

In mid-November, Germany’s statistics office said third-quarter gross domestic product rose by an adjusted 0.1% on the quarter. Before that data was released, a number of economists had expected the economy to slip into a recession.

The economic-outlook measure went up to 1.7 points in November from minus 13.8 points in October, putting the brakes on the downward trend at least for now, GfK said.

Income expectations also increased and reached 45.5 points from 39.0 points in the previous month, supported by a healthy labor-market situation.

The propensity to buy measure dropped to 50.0 points in November from 51.7 points in October, but despite the loss, GfK said it was still at a very high level.
Source: Dow Jones

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