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Global Growth Expected to Remain Robust Through 2019, IIF Says

Despite global trade tensions, the Institute of International Finance sees 2018 world economic growth at its strongest since 2010, while emerging markets are expected to improve to a seven-year high, according to its latest Global Economic Monitor.

The world economy is seen expanding 3.5 percent this year and 3.4 percent in 2019. The euro area is also forecast to experience stronger growth this year — 2.5 percent after 2.3 percent in 2017. The IIF sees the Federal Reserve boosting interest rates three more times this year. The forecast for the U.S. builds on the assumption that fiscal stimulus will add 0.3 percentage point to growth in 2018.

A divergence between mature and emerging markets is projected to expand in 2019, with the latter economies growing faster. Growth in developed markets is forecast to dip to 2.2 percent, while emerging markets will see a slight acceleration to a robust 5.1 percent. The spread will be the largest since 2013.

Real GDP Growth, y/y (%)

2015

2016

2017

2018f

2019f

World 3.0 2.6 3.2 3.5 3.4
World (PPP weights) 3.2 3.1 3.7 4.0 4.0

Mature Markets

2.3

1.6

2.2

2.5

2.2

G3 2.4 1.5 2.2 2.6 2.2
United States 2.9 1.5 2.3 2.9 2.5
Euro Area 2.1 1.8 2.3 2.5 2.1
Japan 1.4 0.9 1.7 1.4 1.2
Other Mature 2.1 2.0 2.3 2.1 1.9

Emerging Markets

3.9

4.2

4.7

5.0

5.1

Latin America

-0.4

-1.3

1.2

2.2

2.5

Argentina 2.7 -1.8 2.9 2.7 3.0
Brazil -3.5 -3.5 1.0 2.7 2.8
Chile 2.3 1.3 1.5 3.3 3.6
Colombia 3.1 2.0 1.8 2.5 3.0
Mexico 3.3 2.9 2.0 2.0 2.2
Venezuela -5.7 -16.5 -15.5 -14.8 -7.5

Emerging Europe

0.7

1.7

4.0

3.0

3.2

Czech Republic 5.3 2.6 4.3 3.6 3.3
Hungary 3.4 2.2 4.0 3.8 3.0
Poland 3.8 2.9 4.5 4.1 3.7
Russia -2.5 0.1 1.5 1.7 2.4
Turkey 6.1 3.2 7.4 4.2 4.4
Ukraine -9.8 2.4 2.5 3.3 3.3

Asia/Pacific

6.4

6.3

6.3

6.4

6.3

China 6.9 6.7 6.9 6.7 6.6
India 7.6 7.9 6.4 7.9 7.6
Indonesia 4.9 5.0 5.1 5.4 5.5
Malaysia 5.0 4.2 5.9 5.5 5.2
Philippines 6.1 6.9 6.7 6.7 6.6
South Korea 2.8 2.8 3.1 3.0 2.9
Thailand 3.0 3.3 3.9 4.0 3.8

Africa/Middle East

2.7

2.9

1.4

2.5

2.9

Algeria 3.7 3.3 1.7 2.9 2.4
Egypt 4.4 4.3 4.2 5.1 5.4
Iran 1.6 12.4 3.1 3.0 3.3
Lebanon 0.8 1.8 2.2 3.0 3.6
Nigeria 2.7 -1.6 0.8 2.2 4.3
Qatar 3.6 2.2 1.9 2.0 1.6
Saudi Arabia 4.1 1.7 -0.7 1.9 2.2
South Africa

Source: Bloomberg

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