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IGC lifts 2019-20 global grain production forecast

Total world grain production in 2019-20 is forecast at 2.17 billion tonnes, up from the November forecast of 2.162 billion tonnes and up 1.3% from the 2018-19 estimate of 2.141 billion tonnes, according to the International Grains Council’s (IGC) Grain Market Report issued on Jan. 23.

The IGC said the higher forecast reflects adjustments in the maize production figures for the United States (up 3 million tonnes) and China (up 5 million tonnes).

Total grains consumption was forecast at 2.194 billion tonnes in 2019-20, up from the November forecast of 2.188 billion tonnes and up from 2.166 billion tonnes as the 2018-19 estimate, the IGC said.

Grain stocks, meanwhile, are forecast at 599 million tonnes in 2019-20, up from 594 million tonnes forecast in November but down 4% from the 2018-19 estimate of 624 million tonnes.

The IGC forecast 2019-20 wheat production at 761 million tonnes, down from the November projection of 762 million tonnes but up from 733 million tonnes as the 2018-19 estimate. Wheat trade and consumption, at 175 million tonnes and 754 million tonnes, respectively, also are forecast higher than estimates for 2018-19, the IGC noted.

Maize production in 2019-20 was forecast at 1.111 billion tonnes, up 8 million tonnes from the November forecast of 1.103 billion but down 18 million tonnes from the 2018-19 estimate of 1.129 billion. Trade was forecast at 168 million tonnes, unchanged from the November forecast but up 3 million tonnes from 165 million tonnes as the 2018-19 estimate.

The IGC forecast production of soybeans at 342 million tonnes in 2019-20, up 1 million tonnes from the November forecast but down 19 million tonnes from the 2018-19 estimate of 361 million tonnes. Soybeans consumption, meanwhile, is forecast at 360 million tonnes in 2019-20, up 7 million tonnes from the 2018-19 estimate, according to the IGC.

Rice production, at 499 million tonnes, was forecast virtually unchanged from the November forecast of 500 million tonnes and the 2018-19 estimate of 500 million. Consumption is forecast at 495 million tonnes, up 5 million tonnes from the 2018-19 estimate of 490 million.
Source: World-Grain

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