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IMF skims over non-viral risks to global economy

When there’s an elephant in the room, it’s hard to think about much else. That’s the problem for the International Monetary Fund, whose latest economic update focuses on huge risks that Covid-19 still poses to the global economy and consequently pays less attention to some of the other potential pitfalls that may also lie ahead.

IMF Chief Economist Gita Gopinath said on Tuesday that the emergence of new highly infectious variants of Covid-19 could wipe about $4.5 trillion off global GDP by 2025. That would unfold either if a new wave of infection hits poorer economies in the second half of this year, or if a super-contagious variant surfaces at the same time as the pace of inoculations slows in developed countries. Both would be bad for the global economy. In the first scenario the developing world, whose 2021 growth forecast was downgraded by the IMF, would bear the brunt. That would turn a growing gap with rich countries into a chasm.

For all its careful economic modelling, though, the IMF devotes less attention to some of the other problems that could derail economic growth. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell could throw financial markets into a tizzy by tightening monetary policy more quickly than investors expect; high inflation may prove less transitory than anticipated by either central bankers or investors, which would lead to seismic shifts in asset prices; corporate earnings might slow more quickly than is forecast; or the withdrawal of government support could turn a wave of bankruptcies into a tsunami.

It’s understandable that the Washington-based lender devotes so much attention to the macroeconomic repercussions of the pandemic. It’s the biggest problem facing the global economy. And the IMF has its work cut out to help highly indebted poor countries, which are trying to repair their finances and may even have to raise interest rates. But steering the global economy through the pandemic isn’t enough. When there is so little room left for fiscal or monetary policy to pick up the slack, averting a future financial or economic crisis is just as important.

The International Monetary Fund on July 27 maintained its 6% global growth forecast for 2021, upgrading its outlook for the United States and other wealthy economies but cutting estimates for a number of developing countries struggling with surging Covid-19 infections.

– The divergence in the outlooks was based largely on better access to Covid-19 vaccines and continued fiscal support in advanced economies, while emerging markets face difficulties on both fronts, the IMF said in an update to its World Economic Outlook.

– “While more widespread vaccine access could improve the outlook, risks on balance are tilted to the downside. The emergence of highly infectious virus variants could derail the recovery and wipe out $4.5 trillion cumulatively from global GDP by 2025,” IMF Chief Economist Gita Gopinath said.
Source: Reuters (Editing by Peter Thal Larsen and Oliver Taslic)

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