Iraqi crude oil exports hit 4-month low of 3.15 mil b/d in Dec

Seaborne Iraqi crude oil exports fell for the fourth month in December, according to Iraq Gulf Terminals loading data obtained by S&P Global Commodity Insights.

Export volumes totaled 3.15 million b/d in the last month of 2024, down 9.7% from August, with China and India taking the bulk of Iraqi crude.

Chinese imports of mostly medium-grade Iraqi crude broadly increased in the latter half of 2024 but fluctuated heavily throughout the year, with a low of 865,000 b/d received in February and a high of 1.36 million b/d in August.

In 2024, Iraq was the fourth largest supplier of crude to China, behind Russia, Saudi Arabia and Malaysia, which market sources told Commodity Insights was predominantly disguised Iranian crude.

New US sanctions and Shandong Port Group’s decision to blacklist sanctioned vessels will likely weaken China’s crude imports of Russian and Iranian barrels in the first quarter of 2025.

Additionally, Iraq’s second-biggest export market — India — will likely have to look to diversify crude sources away from its biggest supplier Russia. Throughout 2024, Iraqi export flows to India remained stable month over month, showing a roughly even split of medium and heavy Iraqi crude grades.

Indian traders and China’s state-run oil companies and private refineries have begun looking for alternative supplies, including from the Middle East where prices rose in the first week of January.

Platts, part of S&P Global Commodity Insights, assessed the differential price of Iraq’s Basrah Medium vs. OSP Mo01 at $3.90/b on Jan. 17, a high not seen since March 2022, rising from minus 50 cents/b on Jan. 9, the day before sanctions were announced by the US. Iraq’s Basrah Heavy Mo01 vs. OSP witnessed similar gains, rising steeply to trade at $4.05/b on Jan. 17. Both dropped off slightly below $4/b Jan. 21.

Platts assessments for Dubai, Murban, and Oman crude grades rose steeply in the first week of 2025.

The recent sanctions could signal a bigger market for Iraqi crude in both China and India in the first half of 2025, but Iraq’s production is tied to its OPEC+ quota of 3.89 million b/d and it has regularly been accused of overproducing. In December, OPEC’s second-largest producer pumped 4.07 million b/d, according to the latest Platts OPEC+ Survey from Commodity Insights.

In 2024, Iraqi crude exports to Turkey and South Korea remained relatively steady, averaging 101,900 b/d and 273,070 b/d, respectively, for the 12 months. Exports to Greece climbed in the first half of the year, peaking at 190,950 b/d in July before dropping off sharply in December to 30,870 b/d.

The number of Iraqi crude shipments marked for export to the US was significantly lower at the beginning of 2024, averaging 144,872 b/d in the first six months compared with the second half of 2024 when that average climbed to 195,322 b/d.
Source: Platts