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Iraq’s oil exports hit record high above 4 million b/d in December

Iraq’s oil exports jumped to a record 4.14 million b/d in December, a month before OPEC’s number-two producer was due to curb its production under the group’s output deal to clear a rising oil glut.

Oil exports from Iraq’s southern Persian Gulf ports bounced back from a weather-induced slump the previous month, oil ministry data showed.

At the same time, export flows of federally-controlled oil ramped up via Turkey to the north, following the resolution of a deadlock over oil contracts and export revenues with Iraqi Kurdistan.

Exports from Persian Gulf terminals rose to 3.63 million b/d from 3.38 million b/d in November, while loadings of Kirkuk crude transported through the Kurdistan-Turkey pipeline rose to 99,000 b/d from 9,000 b/d.

Meanwhile, oil exports from semi-autonomous Kurdistan region of northern Iraq averaged 420,000 b/d last month, little changed from November, according to loading reports from Turkey’s Ceyhan oil terminal.

The combined average of 4.14 million b/d in December was the highest Iraq export rate on record and 95,000 b/d above the previous record of 4.05 million b/d in December 2016.

OPEC CUTS
Iraq’s oil exports are likely to slip back, however, as the country has promised to trim crude production from January 1 under OPEC’s latest oil supply deal.

Last month, OPEC and its producer allies agreed new output quotas under the new supply deal where Iraq committed to cut 141,000 b/d from its October production levels to reach an output level of 4.512 million b/d.

The latest S&P Global Platts OPEC survey, one of six secondary sources used by the producer group to gauge output compliance, put Iraqi production at 4.57 million b/d in November, down 50,000 b/d from October.

Exports by the Kurdistan Regional Government through the Turkish port of Ceyhan, over which Baghdad exerts little control, have averaged around 345,000 b/d during 2018.

But oil exports from the federally-controlled Kirkuk area fields that began flowing into a Rosneft-owned pipeline to Turkey in mid-November will likely be capped at 90,000 b/d until at least 2020, oil minister Thamir Ghadhban said last week.

According to a draft seen by Platts, the Iraqi cabinet has sent a budget to parliament that estimates 3.88 million b/d of oil exports at $56/b for 2019.

The government of Iraq and the KRG agreed a tentative deal in mid-November under which the latter has given assurances that it will transfer all federal Iraqi crude to storage tanks operated by North Oil Company at Ceyhan for Iraq’s State Oil Marketing Organization to sell.
Source: Platts

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