Jefferies sees softer impact of Credit Suisse crisis on India
India’s banking sector will likely have a softer impact from the troubles at Credit Suisse, given the Swiss lender’s relatively small presence in the country, equity analysts at Jefferies said on Thursday.
Credit Suisse has a 1.5% share among foreign banks’ assets in India and a ‘small’ 0.1% share of overall banking assets in the country, Jefferies estimated. It has only 1 branch in India and total assets of over 200 billion rupees ($2.42 billion), it said.
“Given the relevance of Credit Suisse to India’s banking sector, we see softer adjustments in assessment of counter-party risks, especially in the derivative market,” analysts Prakhar Sharma and Vinayak Agarwal said in a note.
Earlier in the day, Credit Suisse said it would borrow up to $54 billion from the Swiss central bank to shore up liquidity and investor confidence after a slump in its shares intensified fears about a global banking crisis.
Credit Suisse, Switzerland’s second-biggest bank, is the first major global bank to be given an emergency lifeline since the 2008 financial crisis and its problems have raised serious doubts over whether central banks will be able to sustain their fight against inflation with aggressive interest rate hikes.
Those fears have roiled financial markets globally as well as in India.
Jefferies said it would watch out for liquidity issues and any rub-off on counter-party risk assessment on Indian banks, especially in derivatives.
The brokerage expects the Reserve Bank of India to keep a close watch on liquidity issues and counter-party exposures, and intervene if necessary.
This may also lead to institutional deposits moving more towards larger or quality banks, Jefferies said.