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LNG shipping stocks: Optimistic decline

The UP World LNG Shipping Index (UPI) experienced a slight decline. Still, it has remained stable since November despite decreased LNG tanker spot rates and a pessimistic winter outlook. However, winter conditions have compelled the use of European gas storage.
Notable stock gains were observed for UPI constituents like New Fortress Energy (NFE), which increased by 12.3%, and Excelerate Energy (EE), which increased by 8.7%. Chevron (CVX) saw a four-week streak of gains, nearing a two-year high. Asian stocks, by contrast, faced a decline.

UPI & SPX
Last week, the UP World LNG Shipping Index (UPI), which tracks listed LNG shipping companies, lost 0.66 points, equivalent to 0.40%, closing at 163.24 points. The S&P 500 index gained 2.91%. The chart below illustrates the performance of both indices with weekly data.

Week 3-2025: Chart of the UP World LNG Shipping Index with S&P 500 (Source: UP-Indices)

Broader view
UPI has experienced a slight decline but has remained relatively stable since November. The primary contributors to this decrease were Asian and Japanese companies, while those listed in the U.S. mostly saw gains. Several companies are now experiencing the year-end growth that was anticipated last fall. However, a decline was observed instead of growth, primarily due to the unusual and ongoing decrease in spot rates for LNG tankers and a pessimistic outlook for the winter season. Surprisingly, winter has arrived more potent than in previous years, which has primarily compelled European gas storage to be utilised.

Constituents
Several notable increases were observed among companies considering their future direction, resulting in significant share price gains. New Fortress Energy (NASDAQ: NFE) achieved the only double-digit gain among all UPI constituents, closing 12.3% higher. Similarly, Excelerate Energy (NASDAQ: EE) added 8.7%, closing above the opening and closing prices of the previous weeks, which were more or less sideways or neutral as a result. This reflects a positive trend, as NFE is recovering from its slump in the second half of the year, and EE appears to be gearing up for a new wave of growth.
Chevron (NYSE: CVX) completed a four-week streak of gains with a 5.4% increase, bringing its share price close to a threshold it hasn’t crossed since 2023. Given the growth in trading volume, there is a good chance it could succeed this time

Nakilat (QSE: QGTS) has also been on the rise. Although its recent uptrend lasted only two weeks, it exhibited a stronger momentum than in many previous weeks. Last week’s increase of 3.5% helped erase two-thirds of the decline that began last July.
Shell (NYSE: SHEL) and Capital Clean Energy Carriers (NASDAQ: CCEC) are other companies worth mentioning for their gains. SHEL increased by 2.7%, while CCEC rose by 2.3%. SHEL’s recent rise has returned it to its previous sideways trading range, showing a movement similar to Flex LNG’s earlier in the week. In contrast, CCEC appears ready to break out of a similar range to the upside. However, we’ll need to see if it has enough strength, as its trading volume has been below average.

From Asia, Korea’s SM KLC (KRX: 005880) was the only UPI stock to post a positive result, rising by 0.9%. Its gains could have been more significant but were constrained as the week progressed.

Asian stocks were predominantly in decline, and two UPI members experienced the most significant drops, both at 5.2%: “K” Line (TSE: 9107) and Dynagas LNG Partners (NYSE: DLNG). While “K” Line is testing the lower end of its trading range, DLNG has retraced its previous gains. This marks the second consecutive week of declines for both stocks.

Mitsui O.S.K. Lines (TSE: 9104) and NYK Line (TSE: 9101) are showing similar trends to “K” Line. They have also fallen for the second week in a row while testing their support levels. Mitsui O.S.K. has dropped by 4.8%, while NYK Line has declined by 4.3%.
Flex LNG (NYSE/OSE: FLNG) has seen a correction of 3.4% after a three-week pullback, but it remains above the $25 level. Similarly, Tsakos Energy Navigation (NYSE: TSE) has also reversed its three-week advance, experiencing a decline of 2.5%. Meanwhile, MISC (KLSE: 3816) is down 1.8% and is testing its long-term support levels from last year and the year before.

Our short-term outlook stays unchanged and is cautiously optimistic. Our long-term view is still positive, and we expect situationally or management-driven actions and potential new long-term contracts.
Source: By Tomas Novotny, UP-Indices.com

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