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MABUX: Bunker market this morning, Dec.05

MABUX World Bunker Index (consists of a range of prices for 380 HSFO, 180 HSFO and MGO (Gasoil) in the main world hubs) demonstrated irregular changes on Dec.04:

380 HSFO – USD/MT – 335.42(-0.20)
180 HSFO – USD/MT – 380.04(+0.62)
MGO – USD/MT – 665.58(-0.78)

Meantime, world oil indexes jumped on Dec.04. on expectations that OPEC and allied producers would extend production curbs, and as U.S. government data showed a large drop in domestic crude stockpiles

Brent for February settlement increased by $2.18 to $63.00 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange. West Texas Intermediate for January delivery rose by $2.33 to $58.42 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The Brent benchmark traded at the premium of $4.57 to WTI. Gasoil for December delivery added $13.23.

Today morning oil indexes deep ahead of OPEC talks in Vienna later today.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and allies including Russia could approve deeper crude output cuts when they meet in Vienna this week. Iraqi oil minister Thamer Ghadhban told that a deeper cut is being preferred by a number of key members. He added he would support at least extending existing cuts to end-2020 from March. However, some remained skeptical of whether OPEC+ will deepen cuts, though many expect an extension of the existing supply pact. OPEC members meet today, with the OPEC+ group meeting the following day. OPEC+ has been curbing supply since 2017 and is expected to keep the cuts in place to balance out record production in the United States. Prices briefly dipped after a report that Saudi Arabia is threatening to boost oil production unilaterally if some OPEC nations continue to defy the group’s output curbs. Saudi Arabia has been bearing the brunt of the cuts, while some members, like Russia, Nigeria and Iraq, are still not in complete compliance

The J.P. Morgan forecasts that the deal will be for cuts of 1.5 million barrels a day, extended through June. The ongoing agreement between OPEC, Russia and other non-OPEC producers is for a 1.2 million barrel a day reduction. Larger cuts should make the market tighter and help boost prices. U.S. shale production has surged to 12.9 million barrels a day, while OPEC and its partners have held oil off the market. Goldman Sachs oil analysts expect OPEC plus to keep its production cut at current levels and to extend them through June, when the OPEC plus group is next scheduled to meet. The Goldman analysts expect oil prices to be choppy around this week’s meeting because there is so much uncertainty about what the producers will do. At the same time, Fitch Solutions said oil prices are likely to fall next year as oil supplies keep rising, outweighing any pickup in growth. It predicted Brent crude will drop to an average of $62 a barrel in 2020 and $58 in 2021, from a $64 average this year.

According to the Energy Information Administration said U.S. crude stocks fell by 4.9 million barrels in the week to Nov. 29 as refineries hiked output. It was expected a decrease of 1.7 million barrels. Crude stocks at the Cushing, Oklahoma, delivery hub fell by 302,000 barrels, EIA said.

AT the same time refinery crude runs rose by 464,000 barrels per day, EIA data showed. Refinery utilization rates rose by 2.6 percentage points. Gasoline stocks rose by 3.4 million barrels, compared with expectations for a 1.8 million-barrel gain. Distillate stockpiles, which include diesel and heating oil, rose by 3.1 million barrels, versus expectations for a 1.1 million-barrel increase. Net U.S. crude imports rose last week by 144,000 barrels per day. The U.S. four-week average for commercial crude oil imports fell to its lowest since 1992.

The uncertainty over prospects for a trade deal between the United States and China still remain. The dispute between the world’s two biggest economies has weakened the global economy and limited oil demand growth. U.S. President Donald Trump said on Dec.04 that trade talks with China were going “very well,” sounding more positive than he did a day earlier when he said a deal may have to wait until after the 2020 election.

We expect bunker prices may demonstrate upward changes today: 6-8 USD up for IFO, 6-9 USD up for MGO.
Source: MABUX

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