MABUX: Bunker market this morning, Feb.26, 2021
MABUX World Bunker Index (consists of a range of prices for 380 HSFO, VLSFO and MGO Gasoil) in the main world hubs) demonstrated upward changes on Feb.25:
380 HSFO – USD/MT – 418.58 (+5.70)
VLSFO – USD/MT – 527.26 (+7.87)
MGO – USD/MT – 592.26 (+10.22)
Correlation between the Market Bunker Price Index (MBP) vs MABUX Digital Bunker Price Index (DBP) in four major hubs on Feb.25 remained undercharging of 380 HSFO bunker grades in Rotterdam (-19USD), Singapore (-31USD), Fujairah (-24USD). In Houston MBP Index is 100% correlating to DBP Index. VLSFO is overcharged in Rotterdam (+2USD), and undercharged in Singapore (-12USD) and Houston (-4USD). In Fujairah MBP Index coincides with DBP Index. MGO LS is undervalued in all hubs except of Houston (+4USD).
Meantime, world oil indexes demonstrated slight irregular changes on Feb.25.
Brent for April settlement decreased by $0.16 to $66.88 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange. West Texas Intermediate for April rose by $0.31 to $63.53 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The Brent benchmark traded at the premium of $3.35 to WTI. Gasoil for March delivery added $1.50.
Today oil indexes decrease as U.S. dollar rise and amid expectations that with oil prices increase more supply is likely to return to the market.
The market is betting that next week’s meeting of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and allies, together called OPEC+, will result in more supply returning to the market. Saudi Arabia pledged additional production cuts earlier in the year, helping to drain stockpiles and avert oversupply fears. However, there are indications that other member states will propose keeping supply steady, while Russia could push for an increase in production.
U.S. crude prices also face headwinds from the loss of refinery demand after several Gulf Coast facilities were shuttered during the winter storm last week. Capacity of about 4 million barrels per day is still shut and it may take until March 5 for all of the shut capacity to resume, though there is risk of delays.
From the other side, there are continued signs of a slow but steady economic recovery from COVID-19 globally due to vaccine rollouts.
We expect bunker prices can demonstrate slight irregular changes today in a range of plus/minus 1-3 USD.