MABUX: World bunker prices may continue rising on March 01 amid geopolitical tensions and market instability
MABUX World Bunker Index (consists of a range of prices for 380 HSFO, VLSFO and MGO in the main world hubs) did not have any firm trend and changed irregular on Feb. 28:
380 HSFO – USD/MT – 615.86 (-2.65)
VLSFO – USD/MT – 794.77 (+9.52)
MGO – USD/MT – 909.52 (+0.71)
The correlation of MABUX MBP Index (market bunker prices) vs MABUX DBP Index (MABUX digital bunker price benchmark) showed on February 28 that 380 HSFO fuel was underestimated in two out of four ports selected: Rotterdam returned to the overprice zone – plus $3 versus minus $14 a day earlier. Another overvalued port is Houston – plus $50 (plus $47). The undercharge margins in the rest two ports were registered as: minus $21 in Singapore (minus $23) and minus $10 in Fujairah (minus $28). High volatility prevents the MABUX MBP/DBP Index from forming a firm trend.
In the VLSFO segment, the MABUX MBP/DBP Index registered an overpricing at all selected ports on February 28: Rotterdam – plus $ 27 (plus $ 6 the day before), Singapore – plus $ 35 (plus $ 17), Fujairah – plus $ 64 (plus $ 47) and Houston – plus $65 (plus $46). VLSFO overprice levels across all ports showed significant gains, peaking at 33 points in Rotterdam.
MGO LS, according to the MABUX MBP/DBP Index, was overcharged on February 28 in all selected ports, while in Houston the overprice ratio exceeded $100 mark for the first time: $118 (vs. $89 the day before). In other ports, the overcharge margins were: Rotterdam – plus $18 (minus $59), Singapore – plus $7 (minus $58) and Fujairah – plus $71 (minus $5). The most significant changes were registered in Rotterdam, Singapore and Fujairah – the overcharge soared by 77, 65 and 76 points, respectively.
We expect geopolitical tensions and global market instability may send bunker prices further up on March 01: 380 HSFO – plus 5-10 USD/MT, VLSFO – plus 5-15 USD/MT, MGO LS – plus 10-20 USD/MT.