Most of Europe set for warmer than usual start to winter: Weather Company

Most of Europe is set for slightly warmer temperatures than normal in October-December this year, according to the latest forecasts published by the Weather Company.

In its outlook for the coming four months, the Weather Company said Aug. 21 that temperatures would be between 0.5 and 1 degree Celsius warmer than average for most of Europe in Q4.

The exception is the UK, which could see temperatures at 0.5-1 C below normal in November and December.

Temperatures will be key for the European gas market this winter, given ongoing concerns over supply security as a result of curtailed Russian exports and competition with Asia for marginal LNG cargoes.

The market remains jittery, with officials from the EU and industry warning repeatedly against complacency this winter, despite stocks having been built to more than 90% already this month.

Winter prices are still trading significantly higher than prices on the prompt.

Platts, part of S&P Global Commodity Insights, assessed the TTF Winter 2023 contract Aug. 21 at Eur55.33/MWh, a premium of Eur15.10/MWh to the TTF month-ahead price of Eur40.23/MWh.

‘Super mild’

The closely watched forecasts from the Weather Company suggest the start to winter will not see unseasonably cold temperatures.

However, it said: “We are not yet convinced that this will another super mild winter, even though that has been the trend in recent winters, given the immense North Atlantic warmth and the hypothesis that blocking may be more common in those winters.”

“Further, the evolution of the current El Nino event is closest to the 2009-10 event, which had a tremendous amount of blocking that winter,” it said.

The European winter of 2009–2010 was unusually cold and is used as an example by German storage group INES as a very cold season.

INES said in June that, for the winter of 2023/24, its scenarios showed gas storage facilities would only be used moderately when temperatures are warm.

But, it said, at normal or cold temperatures, storage facilities would be emptied either significantly or completely.

The three temperature scenarios are warm (such as the European winter of 2020), normal (2016) and cold (2010).

Germany was one of the EU countries worst impacted by the curtailment in Russian gas flows through 2022, with supplies via Nord Stream gradually reduced and then halted at the end of August.

It set itself strict storage targets last summer — which went further than those agreed at EU level — as part of new energy security legislation. It also advocated for 20% gas savings — more than the 15% EU target.
Source: Platts