Nomura sees oil at $125/barrel in worst case
Nomura on Monday lowered its forecast for GDP growth in India in FY23 to 6.5 percent in the worst case scenario. It also made adjustments in its inflation forecasts for the economy.
The move comes as economists await monthly wholesale as well as consumer inflation numbers due later in the day.
The brokerage raised its consumer inflation forecast for FY23 to 6.3 percent in the base case scenario and 7 percent in the worst case scenario, as against 5.9 percent earlier.
Its revised its base case assumption for crude oil to $108 a barrel for 2022 from $88 a barrel earlier. Its worst case crude assumption now stands at $125 per barrel for the year.
Official data released late last month showed India’s GDP expanded a lower-than-expected 5.4 percent in the third quarter of the current financial year. Economists in a CNBC-TV18 poll had pegged the country’s Q3 GDP growth at 5.7 percent.
Investors globally have central bank meetings scheduled this week. The Fed is widely expected to announce a hike in pandemic-era interest rates.
Fears of earlier-and-faster-than expected hikes in COVID-era interest rates has sent jitters across global financial markets in the recent past.