Normalization of supply chain conditions to continue in Q2 2023

Normalization of supply chain conditions to continue in Q2 2023 according to S&P Global Market Intelligence analysis. Chris Rog-ers, Head of Supply Chain Research at S&P Global Market Intelligence said, “The year 2023 is a year of two halves for global sup-ply chains. During the second quarter of 2023, a normalization of supply chain conditions will continue after getting underway in late 2022. Later in 2023, post-pandemic corporate strategies should be clearer and global policy uncertainties may be resolved.

Key highlights from the report:

Supplier delivery times are their best since July 2019, and global trade activity is expected to slow. There are signs of a normaliza-tion in seasonal shipping patterns, though they will only be confirmed during late third quarter of 2023. Electronics supply chains are still disrupted.

Corporate inventories are close, but not quite, at normal levels when measured both as inventory-to-sales ratios and as purchasing manager assessments. It is too soon to assess whether the just-in-case approach will replace the just-in-time as the leading strategy for inventory management.

Reshoring plans are a multiyear process, and there are signs that mainland China may be winning back lost market share in some products.

The ongoing conflict in Ukraine will likely reach a stalemate by the end of the year and carries the risk of expanding sanctions and secondary sanctions.

The bifurcation of global technology supply chains continue as CHIPS-alike regulations are rolled out, but a full decoupling remains unlikely. Tensions between the European Union and the United States are being resolved.

The European Unions Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) gets started in October with reporting requirements. Steel and aluminum suppliers in mainland China and Vietnam could be heavily exposed.
Source: S&P Global Market Intelligence