Oil loadings from Russia’s western ports to rise 9% in Oct/Sept – calculations

Russia’s seaborne crude exports and transits from its western ports will rise in October from September, as domestic oil plants undergo seasonal maintenance while a ban on oil product exports will send refinery runs even lower, according to traders’ data and Reuters calculations.
According to two sources, Urals, KEBCO and Siberian Light oil loadings from the ports of Primorsk, Ust-Luga and Novorossiysk next month will rise above 2.3 million barrels per day (bpd) from some 2.1 million tonnes in the revised September plan.
This is up by some 9% on a daily basis from September, Reuters calculations showed. September is one day shorter than October.
Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said in September that Russia will reduce oil exports until the year-end by 300,000 barrels per day from the average level seen in May-June, while traders believe Moscow can revise up its October export plans following a ban on fuel exports.
“I expect oil exports to rise (in October) as the ban on fuel exports will force refiners to reduce processing,” a source with a trading company said.
Russia temporarily banned gasoline and diesel exports to all but four ex-Soviet states in response to domestic shortages on Sept. 21.
Russian Energy Minister Nikolai Shulginov said on Thursday that the ban on fuel exports will not be lifted soon and will remain in place until the domestic market stabilises.
Rising oil shipments from Primorsk, Ust-Luga and Novorossiysk in October could bring volumes close to the level of May 2023, when supplies hit a four-year recordof 2.4 million barrels per day (bpd).
Oil supplies from Primorsk, Ust-Luga and Novorossiisk in May and June averaged some 2.35 million bpd, according to Reuters estimates and industry data.
Russia has no plans to raise crude oil supply to compensate for the fuel exports ban, the Kremlin said on Thursday, but market participants were not convinced.
“I believe that (oil) exports in October will be massive. And not only for Russia, but also for Saudi Arabia,” lead crude analyst at Kpler Viktor Katona told Reuters. “Moreover, any reductions in oil refining will inevitably develop into oil exports; no one is going to cut production especially if prices are higher $90 per barrel.”
Source: Reuters (Reporting by Reuters; Editing by David Holmes)