Home / Oil & Energy / Oil & Companies News / OPEC: Review of global oil demand trend

OPEC: Review of global oil demand trend

Global oil demand in 2021 saw a strong recovery, increasing by 5.7 mb/d, supported by a solid economic rebound. Oil demand growth was led by the non-OECD region, which saw an increase of 3.1 mb/d y-o-y, with China and India contributing the bulk of additional oil requirements. Oil demand in the OECD region also rebounded by a strong 2.6 mb/d y-o-y.

In the OECD, the Americas saw the largest growth among the sub-regions in 2021, growing by 1.7 mb/d, with gasoline leading in terms of product categories, and LPG even surpassing pre-pandemic levels. In OECD Europe, oil demand growth of 0.6 mb/d, y-o-y, was led by diesel for manufacturing and road transportation. OECD Asia Pacific grew by 0.4 mb/d, y-o-y, and saw strong demand from manufacturing and petrochemicals. In the non-OECD, China and India saw a strong economic recovery, supporting demand for industrial/petrochemical feedstock, including naphtha and LPG. Moreover, rebounding mobility in both countries supported healthy demand for gasoline and diesel, mainly in transportation

China’s oil demand grew by 1.0 mb/d y-o-y, while India saw an increase of 0.3 mb/d, y-o-y.

Looking ahead, global oil demand growth in 2022 is forecast at 4.2 mb/d to average 100.8 mb/d, surpassing the level seen in 2019 (Graph 1). The OECD region is forecast to grow by 1.8 mb/d, although not yet reaching pre-pandemic levels in absolute volumes. OECD Americas is forecast to grow by 1.1 mb/d, driven by a continued improvement in mobility, as well as accelerated manufacturing activity and demand for petrochemical feedstock, driving consumption of gasoline, diesel oil and LPG. In OECD Europe, an expected pick-up in regional, local and international air traffic is projected to support the jet/kerosene demand in the region, while solid manufacturing activities, particularly from Germany and other big economies in the region, are expected to drive the demand for diesel (Graph 2)

Overall, growth in the region is forecast at 0.6 mb/d. In OECD Asia Pacific, Japan announced subsidies for gasoline, which along with a healthy petrochemical sector are anticipated to support oil demand. The region is projected to grow by 0.2 mb/d in 2022. The non-OECD region is forecast to grow by 2.3 mb/d in 2022, surpassing the pre-pandemic level of 2019 by around 2 mb/d for total demand. Within the region, China, India and Other Asia are the main drivers, making up more than two-thirds of the growth volumes.

In China, the ongoing return of mobility is forecast to back gasoline demand, which is projected to grow by around 0.2 mb/d y-o-y, with diesel and jet/kerosene adding support. India is similarly expected to see added mobility resulting in forecast y-o-y growth of roughly 0.2 mb/d for gasoline and 0.1 mb/d for jet/kerosene, with upwardly revised economic growth for the country supporting diesel growth of around 0.1 mb/d. Outside Asia, resumption of international travel is likely to be a key driver of oil demand in the Middle East, with expected total demand growth forecast at 0.3 mb/d. Latin America oil demand is driven mainly by diesel and gasoline with overall oil demand forecast to grow by 0.2 mb/d y-o-y.

The main challenges for 2022 remain the containment of the COVID-19 pandemic and any resulting restrictive measures, supply chain disruptions, inflation, and labour shortages that could dampen economic growth. Nevertheless, upside potential to the forecast prevails, based on an ongoing observed strong economic recovery with the GDP already reaching pre-pandemic levels, supported by fiscal stimulus, and global trade levels reaching an all-time high in volume terms. Moreover, mobility is expected to gain further momentum, particularly with regard to the travel and tourism sector. Given the experience of the past two volatile years, vigilant monitoring of pandemic developments, along with a highly flexible approach, will remain key to successfully maintaining oil market stability
Source: OPEC

Recent Videos

Hellenic Shipping News Worldwide Online Daily Newspaper on Hellenic and International Shipping