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Petrobras kicks off Marlim revitalisation project in Brazil

It’s been a busy few weeks for Petrobras in Brazil. The national oil company (NOC) announced the start-up of the Anna Nery floating production storage and offloading (FPSO) unit, located in the Marlim field (Campos Basin) – one of the biggest revitalisation projects in the world.

I’ve used Lens Upstream, to investigate production, cost, net present value (NPV) and emissions intensity for Marlim, all with a few clicks.

Our upstream research teams track market activity closely. Aside from the Marlim project, key recent themes for Petrobras include:

FID for Brazil’s BM-C-33 project

Earlier this month, Petrobras, Equinor (operator) and Repsol Sinopec Brasil disclosed the final investment decision (FID) for Brazil’s US$9 billion BM-C-33 project. Start-up is scheduled for 2028. The discovery holds 1 billion boe in reserves and will become a key gas supply source for the Brazilian domestic market.

Clients can read our outlook for Equinor’s global deepwater production, valuation, and emission intensity of the project in this report: Equinor sanctions its second operated deepwater project in Brazil. Or contact us to find out more about our upstream research via the form at the top of the page.

Strategic shifts underway for Petrobras?

In April, Petrobras held its first board meeting under the newly-elected Lula government, confirming the appointed CEO and the new board members. In recent months the indications have been signalling a shift from a company focused on upstream and shareholder returns to a company that will execute public programmes to support the left-wing government.

Petrobras’ position in the pre-salt may be challenged

Petrobras still dominates the upstream sector in Brazil. However, its position in the pre-salt may be challenged post-2030, given the unpredictable and long-cycle nature of exploration ventures.

In fact, permitting issues might again postpone the exploration activity in the Foz do Amazonas Basin. Since December, Petrobras has mobilised equipment in the region as it waited for drilling permits for the Morpho well.

Our recent report, Will Morpho unleash an Amazonian tidal wave in Brazil?, explores the opportunities and challenges of this project in more detail. The scenario is still undefined, and any change will only be possible through a political resolution. We are following this evolving situation closely and will publish our view soon.

Cost control will remain key

Petrobras’ economic results will depend on continued cost control and strong performance on its core upstream assets, expansions and infill drilling campaigns, like Tupi.

The field’s oil production rates have been resilient even with increasing water-oil ratios. We’ve seen examples of wells that had been shut off and brought back online with large production rates. The ultimate recovery factors will depend heavily on how increasing water-oil and gas-oil ratios are managed by the operator.
Source: Wood Mackenzie

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