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Prices mixed on supply, higher demand expectations

Dutch wholesale gas prices fell on Monday morning on comfortable supply and storage levels while prompt British prices rose in expectation of higher demand over the weekend.

The benchmark Dutch contract for October TRNLTTFMc1 was down 11.49 euros at 191.00 euros per megawatt hour (MWh) by 0919 GMT, while the day-ahead contract TRNLTTFD1 fell by 7.70 euros to 184.00 euros/MWh.

Total Norwegian exports are 36 million cubic metres (mcm) higher at 265 mcm/day, while Russian flows are steady apart from through Nord Stream 1 which remains at zero.

Liquefied natural gas (LNG) supply is steady and storage levels are at nearly 84% full in Europe, providing some downward pressure, traders said.

But north-west Europe local distribution zone (LDZ) demand, mainly used for heating, is forecast to jump by over 600 gigawatt hours per day over the weekend and next week, said Yuriy Onyshkiv, gas analyst at Refinitv.

“A first test regarding the level of gas demand destruction in the residential heating sector may occur with temperatures expected to below average levels by the end of the week,” said analysts at Engie EnergyScan.

“In the meantime, relatively comfortable gas systems could continue to weigh on market sentiment with prices trading close to last week’s lows at the opening this morning,” they added.

In the British wholesale gas market, the day-ahead price TRGBNBPD1 was up 10.00 pence at 345.00 pence per therm, while the within-day price TRGBNBPWKD was 5.00 pence higher at 355.00 pence/therm.

UK temperatures are expected to fall below seasonal normals from Sept. 15, but should recover to above normal levels from Sept. 17, Refinitiv Eikon data shows.

In the UK, lower temperatures and weaker wind speeds are forecast to raise gas demand by some 20-27 mcm/d across the prompt, Onyshkiv said.

Peak wind generation is forecast at 8 gigawatts (GW) on Monday and 6.7 GW on Tuesday, out of total metered capacity of around 20 GW, Elexon data showed.

However, UK October gas TRGBNBPMV2 was 35.00 pence lower at 365.00 pence/therm.

In the European carbon market, the benchmark contract CFI2Zc1 fell by 0.16 euros to 65.92 euros a tonne.
Source: Reuters (Reporting by Nina Chestney)

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