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Refinery Margin Tracker: Refining margins mixed as Dorian swept past USAC

Global refining margins were mixed last week as Hurricane Dorian disrupted flows of crude and products into the US Atlantic Coast, an analysis Monday by S&P Global Platts showed.

Margins for imported crudes like Nigeria’s Bonny Light and Forties fell for US Atlantic Coast refiners to average $7.51/b and $6.80/b, respectively, for the week ended September 6, according to S&P Global Analytics.

Before sweeping up the USAC, Hurricane Dorian hit the Bahamas last week, the worst storm on record for the island nation. Both Buckeye Partners and Equinor shut down their Bahamian storage and transshipment facilities ahead of the storm.

Initial assessment showed Buckeye’s 27.2 million-barrel crude, refined products and butane storage facilities sustained no damage, the company said, but the damage regional infrastructure sustained is slowing down return to normal operations.

However, Equinor’s 6.5 million-barrel crude oil storage, blending and transshipment facility in South Riding sustained some damage and the company said Monday it was in the process of evaluating and cleaning up the site.

Equinor’s facility is a key transshipment point for USAC crudes, leading to a drop in waterborne USAC crude imports. Platts Analytics forecasts USAC waterborne crude imports to be 398,000 b/d for the week ended September 6, compared with the 524,000 b/d imported the week ended August 30.

USGC MARGINS BOOSTED BY DORIAN, WHILE ARA MARGINS SLIP
US Gulf Coast margins rose as gasoline and diesel imports into the USAC were impacted by Dorian.

The premium for ULSD off the Colonial Pipeline compared to USAC ULSD barges reached a two-year high on Friday, according to Platts assessments.

While Colonial Pipeline runs from Texas into northeastern New Jersey, very little of the gasoline, diesel and jet fuel make it to the pipeline’s terminus in Linden, with most barrels are taken off south of Maryland.

Dorian’s onslaught cut demand for refined products in the southeastern USAC states, while it impeded flows imports of gasoline and diesel from Europe and Canada into the northern USAC states, supporting a rise in USGC margins.

USGC Mars coking margin rose to $9.23/b for the week ended September 6 from the $8.39/b the week earlier, Platts Analytics margins showed.

Conversely, in Northwest Europe, margins slipped as exports fell. The Forties Cracking margin in Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp averaged $5.22/b for the week ended September 6, from the $5.72/b the week earlier, Platts Analytics margins showed.

MIDWEST KNOCK-ON EFFECT
A problem with a reformer at BP’s 430,000 b/d Whiting, Indiana, refinery boosted regional octane demand.

This supported a rise in Midwest cracking margins, as well making it economical to bring gasoline barrels up the Explorer into the Chicago market from the USGC.

Midwest cracking margins rose to $12.37/b for the week ended September 6, up from the $11.69/b the week earlier, while the USGC cracking margin for WTI MEH rose to $11.77/b from the $10.78/b.

US Atlantic Coast Refining Margin Averages ($/b)
Bonny Light Cracking Syncrude Cracking Bakken Crude Cracking Forties Cracking
Week ending September 06 7.51 5.08 14.70 6.80
Week ending August 30 7.63 4.10 13.68 7.21
Q3 to date 9.17 6.54 14.13 9.96
Q3-18 8.10 14.19 13.91 8.85
Q2-19 7.42 9.11 14.05 7.64
Q1-19 3.94 6.36 8.59 3.72
Source: S&P Global Platts Analytics
US Gulf Coast Refining Margin Averages ($/b)
WTI MEH Cracking Isthmus Cracking Mars Coking Vasconia Coking
Week ending September 06 11.77 6.51 9.23 8.68
Week ending August 30 10.78 5.50 8.39 8.31
Q3 to date 11.49 7.90 8.72 10.05
Q3-18 10.35 11.56 11.18 12.93
Q2-19 9.59 7.04 8.32 9.25
Q1-19 8.38 5.14 5.97 7.76
Source: S&P Global Platts Analytics
US Midwest Refining Margin Averages ($/b)
Bakken Cracking Syncrude Cracking WTI Cushing Cracking WCS ex-Cushing Coking
Week ending September 06 12.37 7.67 10.06 10.06
Week ending August 30 11.69 7.21 9.23 9.98
Q3 to date 14.79 12.45 13.60 14.45
Q3-18 19.07 22.66 15.41 17.17
Q2-19 18.56 17.53 16.90 16.95
Q1-19 11.43 11.03 11.49 9.93
Source: S&P Global Platts Analytics
US West Coast Refining Margin Averages ($/b)
ANS Cracking Napo Coking Arab Medium Coking Vasconia Coking
Week ending September 06 16.89 18.65 17.23 20.99
Week ending August 30 20.83 22.58 20.84 25.76
Q3 to date 14.13 16.00 13.07 18.57
Q3-18 13.85 18.03 15.21 19.70
Q2-19 19.48 22.32 18.44 24.37
Q1-19 12.98 15.22 11.05 16.04
Source: S&P Global Platts Analytics
Singapore Refining Margin Averages ($/b)
Dubai Cracking Forties Cracking ESPO Cracking WTI MEH Cracking
Week ending September 06 3.78 0.00 1.50 3.73
Week ending August 30 3.10 0.50 0.67 3.75
Q3 to date 3.25 1.19 1.24 3.76
Q3-18 3.79 3.45 3.02 5.23
Q2-19 0.81 -1.15 0.22 1.95
Q1-19 1.32 -0.03 0.75 2.58
Source: S&P Global Platts Analytics
ARA Refining Margin Averages ($/b)
Forties Cracking Bonny Light Cracking Azeri Light Cracking Urals Cracking
Week ending September 06 5.22 6.77 4.15 6.97
Week ending August 30 5.72 7.11 4.53 6.64
Q3 to date 6.87 7.55 5.87 7.18
Q3-18 6.30 6.92 6.16 6.62
Q2-19 4.99 6.18 4.65 5.79
Q1-19 3.15 3.62 2.99 3.70
Source: S&P Global Platts Analytics
Italy Refining Margin Averages ($/b)
Urals Cracking CPC Blend Cracking Azeri Light Cracking WTI MEH Cracking
Week ending September 06 4.68 7.57 4.19 6.74
Week ending August 30 4.17 7.65 4.37 6.66
Q3 to date 5.44 8.99 5.73 7.76
Q3-18 6.04 8.15 6.11 6.20
Q2-19 3.82 6.49 3.85 5.25
Q1-19 2.88 5.25 3.42 3.48

Source: Platts

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