Russian oil and gas revenue seen falling in 2025-2027 as tax burden on Gazprom to ease, document shows

Russia’s state revenue from oil and gas is expected to decline in 2025-2027 mainly because the tax burden on the country’s largest gas producer Gazprom GAZP.MM is set to ease, a draft budget published on Monday showed.

According to the budget document, total budget revenue from oil and gas sales is set to decline to 10.9 trillion roubles ($117.53 billion), or 5.1% of gross domestic product, in 2025 from 11.3 trillion roubles expected this year.

Revenue is set to fall further to 10.56 trillion roubles in 2026 and 9.77 trillion roubles in 2027.

The draft budget will be debated by the Russian parliament.

Finance Minister Anton Siluanov said on Monday that revenue from the oil and gas sector will account for 27% of total state budget proceeds next year. Currently the sector contributes about a third of annual state revenue.

Since the invasion of Ukraine, state-owned Gazprom, headed by Alexei Miller, a long-term ally of Russian President Vladimir Putin, has seen a sharp fall in its pipeline exports to Europe, formerly its largest foreign market.

This resulted in Gazprom’s first net loss since 1999 in 2023. Still, the government imposed in 2022 an extra gas production tax on the producer of 50 billion roubles every month for 2023-2025.

The government now plans to ease that tax burden on Gazprom, the document showed.

The mineral extraction tax (MET) on gas production, mainly for Gazprom, is set to fall next year by more than 30% to just over 1 trillion roubles ($10.76 billion), according to the document.

According to an addendum to the document, MET on gas production is set to be reduced by 550 billion roubles in 2025 from 2024 via changes to the Tax Code.
Source: Reuters (Reporting by Reuters; Editing by Jan Harvey and Susan Fenton)