Russian wheat export prices moved up last week, analysts expect exports to slow

Russian wheat export prices rose slightly last week amid reports of exceptionally poor winter crops, with analysts expecting exports to slow to below-average levels in December.

Dmitry Rylko, head of the IKAR consultancy, said the price of Russian wheat with 12.5% protein, set for free-on-board (FOB) delivery in late December-early January, was up $2 to $228 per metric ton at the end of last week.

The Sovecon consultancy said prices for Russian wheat with the same protein content and on the same delivery terms were at $225 to $229 per ton compared with $226 to $229 the previous week.

“The market is bad, and these prices are rather nominal”, Rylko said.

Analysts do not foresee a significant impact on prices from the new export quota, which is more than three times smaller than last season’s quota

Russia will also raise its wheat export duty by almost 32%. European traders said they suspected Russian authorities decided to raise export taxes as Russian wheat continues to be offered very cheaply.

Weekly grain exports are estimated at 1.08 million tons, including 1.01 tons of wheat, which is an increase from 0.63 million ton of grain and 0.55 ton of wheat the previous week, Sovecon said.

Initial estimates for December wheat exports are 3.3 to 3.5 million tons, slightly below average, the agency noted.

Sowing of grain crops for the 2025 harvest is nearing completion. Winter grains were sown at 17.6 million hectares, down 1 million hectares against last year.

The share of winter crops in Russia for the 2025 harvest in poor condition or which have not sprouted is at an unprecedented level of over 37% mainly due to dry weather, analysts from ProZerno centre said on Wednesday, citing state weather forecasting agency data.

Last week, winter wheat regions were mostly dry, Sovecon wrote in a weekly note.

“During the next few weeks, weather models predict temperatures higher than normal in all winter wheat regions. With such poor crop conditions and weather set-potential cold snaps later in the winter should be watched closely as it could impact plants substantially,” the consultancy said.
Source: Reuters (Reporting by Olga Popova, editing by Gleb Bryanski and Jonathan Oatis)