Russian wheat market sees 14.5% drop since June, exports steady

The price of FOB Russian wheat with 12.5% protein content has not exceeded $223/metric ton since July 3, with the market seeing a 14.5% decline since June, S&P Global Commodity Insights data showed Sept. 12.

These low prices have helped maintain steady export volumes at a time when Turkey, a top customer for Russian wheat, suspended its wheat imports June 15-Oct. 15 to protect local production. Simultaneously, exports of EU wheat have decreased year on year as top producers France and Germany grappled with rainfall since May.

Russia exported a record amount of wheat in August at 5.6 MMt, according to the analytical center Rusagrotrans. Last year the record was 5.4 MMt. Exports so far into the new marketing year July 2024-June 2025 have reached 9.4 MMt, with 1.4 MMt shipped mainly to Egypt, 680,000 t to Bangladesh and Turkey each, 490,000 t to Algeria, and 470,000 t to Israel, the center said. In MY 23-24, the exports were close to 9.6 MMt.

As of Sept. 12, Platts assessed FOB Russian wheat at $217/t. This time last year, the market was priced at $244.50/t.

“There is competition between Russian exporters for volume of export. That’s why we can see very cheap offers,” a Russian seller said.

“I think we will see a further decrease in the price,” a buyer said.

Russia has so far harvested 72 MMt of wheat, the agriculture ministry said Sept. 11. This comes as farmers have faced frosts, droughts and rains this year that contributed to reducing Russia’s wheat production forecasts. Russia is forecast to produce this season 82.1 MMt of wheat, down from 8.4 MMt from last season. This year Russia is forecast to export 47 MMt, down from 54.7 MMt last season, according to a Commodity Insights analysis.

“A lot of demand is going to hold on a bit longer,” a buyer of Russian wheat said.

The low-priced Russian wheat highlights a critical market dynamic in which low wheat prices discourage farmers from selling their crops as they anticipate higher prices.

Russian farmers are choosing not to sell wheat at the current low levels, a Russian trader said. “Farmers are selling sunflower instead. The price suits them and there are more buyers here,” the trader added.

Similarly in Romania, farmers are selling only marginal volumes of wheat to cover some production costs, but market liquidity is very low, exporters there said.

The lack of liquidity comes as farmers remain concerned about the poor conditions of summer crops, corn and sunflower seeds, that have been affected by the hot weather in past months. “Exporters are trying to cover some sales or will wait for liquidity to come back,” a local trader said.

“Farmers are only selling at a certain moment in the future. Only sunflower seeds traded a bit,” another local source said.

The FOB CVB 11.5% and 12.5% protein content have seen steady increases of 3.86% month on month, Platts data showed. This comes after declines in EU wheat exports affected by cuts in the French and German projections that have seen production cut by 23% and 12.7% year on year due to the rainy weather since May.

The EU exported less wheat in the marketing year so far, down 23% year on year to 4.82 MMt, European Commission data showed as of Sept. 8. A Commodity Insights analysis showed total exports projected at 30.2 MMt for MY 24-25, down from 38.1MMt last season. EU-27 wheat production for MY 24-25 is projected to decline to 123.4 MMt, down from 134.9 MMt last year.

On the other hand, Ukraine is also exporting a record amount of wheat this marketing year at a much faster pace than this time last year. From July to Sept. 11, Ukraine exported 4.29 MMt, up 72% year on year. Platts assessed FOB Ukraine wheat 11.5% at $213/t, down $1/t month on month.
Source: Platts