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Russian wheat prices up on worsening crop outlook

Russian wheat prices rose last week due to a worsening outlook for the country’s crop and stronger markets in Chicago and Paris, analysts said on Monday. Russian wheat with 12.5% protein loading from Black Sea ports for supply in August was $254 a tonne free on board (FOB) at the end of last week, up $6 from the previous week, the IKAR agriculture consultancy said in a note.

Another consultancy, Sovecon, recorded a $10 rise to $255 per tonne of wheat. Barley was up $10 at $224, it said. IKAR cut its forecast for Russia’s 2021 wheat crop by 3 million tonnes to 78.5 million tonnes due to low yields in the Central and Volga regions on Friday. The state weather forecaster also cut its estimate for the 2021 grain crop.

Sovecon said it could cut its forecast by 4 million tonnes from 82.3 million tonnes of wheat later this week as Russia’s statistics service reported the pre-harvest winter wheat area at 15.6 million hectares last week vs the 16.8 million hectares Sovecon previously estimated.

Sovecon said the gap between this year’s and last year’s yield was widening as harvesting moved to the Volga and Central regions hit by dry weather. Parts of these regions expect rains this week which would help their late spring crops, Sovecon said.

Other Russian data provided by Sovecon and IKAR: Product: Price at the end Change from week of last week: earlier – Domestic 3rd 12,825 roubles/t +150 rbls class wheat, ($175.3) European part of Russia, excludes delivery (Sovecon) – Sunflower seeds 37,825 rbls/t unchanged (Sovecon) – Domestic 91,000 rbls/t -650 rbls sunflower oil (Sovecon) – export $1,240/t +$20 sunflower oil (Sovecon) – export $1,250/t +$25 sunflower oil (IKAR) – soybeans 47,400 rbls/t -400 rbls (Sovecon) – white sugar, $572.8/t +$22 Russia’s south (IKAR)
Source: Reuters (Reporting by Polina Devitt; editing by David Evans)

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