Russia’s IKAR cuts grain harvest, export forecasts for 2024

Russia’s leading agricultural consultancy, IKAR, said that it had cut its forecast for the 2024 grain harvest to 128 million tons from 129.5 million tons previously and its grain export forecast to 55 million tons from 55.5 million tons.

Several key Russian grain-producing regions have suffered from adverse weather conditions, ranging from spring frosts to heatwaves this year, although the country maintains its official outlook at about 132 million tons.

IKAR has kept its export forecast for wheat at 44 million tons, following an increase in its wheat harvest forecast for this year to 83.2 million tons.

Last year’s exports were estimated at a record 54.3 million tons, reinforcing Russia’s position as the world’s largest wheat exporter.

Barley exports from Russia are expected to drop significantly, decreasing 2.6-fold to 3.5 million tons this year from 8.3 million tons, according to IKAR. The corn harvest is projected to fall by 17.6% to 14 million tons due to extreme weather conditions.

IKAR’s head, Dmitry Rylko, noted that barley supplies from the Black Sea area are anticipated to be at a 10-year low this year.

Earlier, Inna Zaichenko, the deputy head of the grain quality watchdog, indicated that the overall quality of the harvested grain has been poorer than last year. Lower grain quality may affect export potential, as higher quality grain is typically preferred for export.

The protein content, a crucial measure of wheat quality, in harvested wheat has fallen to 12% from 12.4% after the watchdog examined 6.3 million tons of collected wheat.
Source: Reuters (Reporting by Olga Popova, writing by Gleb Bryanski, editing by Susan Fenton)