Scrubbers’ Share Reaches 10% of Existing Fleet and 31% of World’s Orderbook Says Clarkson
Clarksons issued a series of figures compiled on the current scrubber market situation.
Summarising the latest update, Steve Gordon, Managing Director of Clarksons Research commented:
Scrubber count has increased six-fold since January 2018, to represent over 10% of the fleet by tonnage capacity (basis installed plus pending retrofit) and 31% of the orderbook by tonnage capacity.
Including further additions pending, the total scrubber count now exceeds 2,500 vessels (Jan 2018: ~400).
The cruise sector has the largest uptake within the fleet (61% by tonnage), with uptake in the tanker sector fleet reaching 14% by tonnage, in the bulker sector 7% and in the containership sector 11%.
Within the orderbook, 53% of tanker, 25% of bulker and 41% of containership tonnage has a confirmed scrubber ordered.
We estimate that by 2020 up to 10% of the world fleet by capacity will be scrubber fitted, increasing to 15% by end 2020 – these estimates increase to 22% to 35% for the VLCC fleet.
Market impact of IMO 2020 includes a range of upside “wildcards” that may disrupt shipping market supply and demand, including off hire time, vessel speed, accelerated recycling and oil trading patterns.
Off hire time for scrubber retro-fit may reduce available fleet supply across the major sectors by 0.5% to 1.1% on an annualised basis (see our Tanker, Bulker and Container monthly reports for more detail).
The equivalent numbers for LNG fuel capable adoption stand at 2.7% of the world fleet and 14.3% of the world orderbook.
We estimate that 3% to 4% of world tonnage will by LNG fuel capable through 2020, albeit the majority is still in LNG carrier sector.
Interest in alternative fuel adoption increasing, with recent announcements of the first containership retro-fit to LNG and further newbuild orders involving LPG as a fuel.