Shipping Is Looking to Benefit from the US-China Trade Agreement
The shipping industry has been looking forward to a trade deal between the US and China for quite some time now. As a result, the latest positive development is expected to boost the fortunes of both the dry bulk and the tanker markets, but also to increase demand for vessel acquisitions among shipowners.
In its latest weekly report, shipbroker Intermodal said that “it seems that we are finally seeing whitish smoke as far as the trade feud between the US and China is concerned, while following this much anticipated deal between the two countries, everyone in the shipping industry is currently trying to assess the impact in the different shipping sectors. The first phase of the agreement signed last week reduces tariffs but only for a percentage of imports, with the majority of the imported and exported goods from either country retaining the previously imposed tariffs at the same levels. US exports of agricultural cargoes, crude oil, LNG, and refined products are set for an increase in the next two years given that the agreed figures will be imported by China”.
According to Intermodal’s SnP broker, Mr. Timos Papadimitriou, “it will take some time before we can quantify the benefits this agreement will have in the dry bulk market, while with the Chinese New Year festivities just around the corner, owners seem to be focusing more on when the market will manage to shake off the negative sentiment of late and less on the longer term effects of this agreement. Given the lows we have been seeing lately, it is only logical to anticipate a stronger or at least substantially improved market closer to the end of the first half. This could support sale and purchase activity at the moment given that Buyers being optimistic about the later part of the year could possibly take advantage of the softer sentiment that is currently prevailing”.
Papadimitriou added that “on the tanker side it seems that healthy rates will most probably prevail in 2020 as despite the very recent downward corrections, earnings remain at very healthy levels. This coupled with the fact that there are fewer ships in the market for sale compared to a while ago, could help asset prices maintain their levels and even firm in case the freight market enjoys additional impressive spikes in the future. At the moment crude carrier ships are viewed by some investors expensive, especially those older than 12 years, with certain buyers feeling that a correction is now long due. The truth is that there is not much substance that a correction will indeed come though. As a matter of fact there is more evidence as well as positive sentiment that the rates will stay strong. This eventually will drive asset prices higher with owners hesitant to buy earlier on, eventually rushing in to catch up with the upward momentum additionally inflating prices as a result”.
“It is very early to make any solid assumptions as to what 2020 will turn out to be, but it must be the first time in a long time that the picture is brighter than dark and the industry seems to be ready for it more than ever”, Intermodal’s analyst concluded.
Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News Worldwide