Soybeans hold gains amid US election rethink, corn and wheat ease

Chicago soybean futures held steady on Tuesday after a day-earlier rally as drier U.S. weather and a reassessment of Donald Trump’s election chances underpinned the market.

Corn and wheat eased as operators set North American weather risks against moderate demand and ample global supply.

The most-active soybean contract on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) was Sv1 up 0.2% at $10.71-1/4 a bushel by 1150 GMT. The contract jumped more than 3% on Monday to pull away from a near four-year low struck last week.

U.S. President Joe Biden’s decision on Sunday not to stand for re-election prompted investors to reassess the odds of a Trump presidential electionvictory that could heighten trade tensions with China, the world’s biggest soybean importer.

“Traders have unwound Trump tariff bets this week, helping soybeans rebound,” Peak Trading Research said in a note.

Large short positions built up during recent falls in soybeans and cereals have also left futures prone to rebounds.

“It’s more fund short-covering,” said Vitor Pistoia, an analyst at Rabobank in Sydney.

“Rain in the U.S. has stopped,” he added. “It’s a bit concerning. The market is reflecting fear that the crop might not be as big as expected.”

However, immediate crop worries were tempered by weekly U.S. Department of Agriculture data released after Monday’s close.

The agency rated 68% of the soybean crop in good-to-excellent condition, unchanged from last week.

It also said 67% of the U.S. corn crop was in good-to-excellent condition, down one point from a week ago though like for soybeans that was the highest for the time of year since 2020.

CBOT corn Cv1 inched down 0.1% to $4.14-1/2 a bushel, having risen 2.5% in the previous session, while CBOT wheat Wv1 fell 1.0% to $5.42-1/2 a bushel.

Hot and dry weather forecast for parts of Canada and the Black Sea region, along with poor harvest prospects in France, have lent support to corn and wheat prices.

But consultancy Sovecon said on Tuesday it had revised up slightly its forecast for Russia’s 2024 wheat crop to 84.2 million metric tons, underscoring ample supply in the world’s biggest wheat exporting country.
Source: Reuters (Reporting by Gus Trompiz in Paris and Peter Hobson in Canberra; Editing by Sherry Jacob-Phillips, Mrigank Dhaniwala and Alexander Smith)