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S&P Global expects global trade will grow at a compound rate of 3.3% through to 2028

S&P Global today published the latest edition of its Look Forward research series, focusing on the most important themes that will drive the development of global supply chains through to 2030.

The global supply chain industry finds itself at a juncture, grappling with pressures from geopolitical tensions, shipping disruptions and looming threats from climate change and technological advances. These developments have enabled a widespread re-evaluation of the global wave of outsourcing as countries and companies race to understand and adapt to shifting trade patterns.

Against this backdrop, S&P Global’s leading specialists investigate the major themes that will shape supply chains in the decade to come, offering decision-makers a comprehensive overview to chart a resilient course forward.

Highlights from the report include:

Trade remains the bedrock of the global economy – S&P Global expects global trade will grow at a compound rate of 3.3% through to 2028, outpacing GDP growth (2.6%). Global supply chain expansion will be led by Southeast Asia and emerging markets.

Supply chain policies will continue to shift towards national security priorities – rising protectionism, resource-guarding, sanctions and investment subsidies could increase inflationary pressures.

Higher financing costs reduce firms’ ability and willingness to invest in supply chain resilience; businesses prefer strategies that cut risks and boost profitability, like reshoring and technology enhancements.

Foreign direct investments point to Southeast Asia and Mexico as reshoring destinations.

Workforce growth disparity between developed and developing economies will disadvantage industrialized market supply chains; cross-border labor mobility is expected to be held back by politics.

Despite transporting 45% of global trade by value, the container shipping industry is ill-equipped to finance its decarbonization, with cost burdens remaining a powerful obstacle.

“Whether in the opportunities emerging from evolving dynamics and technologies, or the risks arising across geopolitical spheres, the strategic value of supply chains has never been more evident,” said Edouard Tavernier, President, S&P Global Mobility. “This edition of Look Forward brings together the best of S&P Global research to spotlight the themes shaping supply chains, providing our customers the fresh focus and perspectives to stay ahead.”
Source: S&P Global Market Intelligence

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