Stocks, dollar inch up ahead of Powell’s Jackson Hole speech
World stock markets and the dollar rose on Friday as investors looked to a speech by Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell for clarification on whether the U.S. central bank remains on course to deliver another interest rate cut in next month.
Suggesting markets remain broadly confident of further Fed stimulus, European stocks rebounded from the previous day’s falls, with the pan-European STOXX 600 index up as much as half a percent by midday in London. Britain’s FTSE 100 index was up 0.71%. [.EU]
MSCI’s All Country World Index, which tracks shares across 47 countries, was up 0.1% and set to break a three-week losing streak.
Earlier in Asia, MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan edged 0.4% higher and was up 1.0% for the week, on track to break a four-week losing streak. Japan’s benchmark Nikkei advanced 0.4% and Australian stocks added 0.3%.
The dollar rose 0.3% against a basket of peer currencies. [.DXY]
Powell is due to speak at 1400 GMT at a gathering of central bankers in Jackson Hole, Wyoming.
While markets overwhelmingly expect the Fed to follow up its first rate cut in a decade with more stimulus at its meeting next month, some policymakers are not keen.
Kansas City Fed President Esther George, who dissented against the decision to ease in July – for the first time since the financial crisis – and Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker, who said he “reluctantly” supported the cut, both said the U.S. economy did not need more stimulus at this point.
Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan said businesses had become much more cautious due to surprises on trade policy and he was “going to at least be open-minded about making some adjustment” if he saw continued weakness.
That has made Powell’s speech pivotal for markets as they look for any clues on future policy direction.
“Judging by the minutes from the July meeting the central bank seems content to sit on their hands, but it is worth remembering the U.S.-China trade situation has intensified, and so has the unrest in Hong Kong, and that might prompt Mr. Powell to be a touch more dovish than he was in late July,” said David Madden, markets analyst at CMC Markets in London.
U.S. stock futures were up 0.26%, pointing to gains on Wall Street later in the day. [.N]
In the U.S. bond market, the two-year/10-year yield curve briefly moved back into inversion territory overnight, a shift that also occurred last week and hit financial markets amid worries that it presaged a sharp global downturn.
“There’s been no jaw-dropping news this week but we have had incrementally less bond-friendly news – the FOMC minutes, the euro area PMIs, and Fed speakers in recent days that give the impression that July was an insurance rate cut,” said John Davies, G10 rates strategist at Standard Chartered Bank.
“This has dragged the market away from speculating about 25-50 basis points rate cut in September to a discussion on a 25 bps cut to will they cut rates, so a bit more uncertainty has been injected into markets.”
Markets are however still pricing in a 98.8% probability of a 25-basis-point cut on Sept. 18.
The euro eased marginally to $1.1053. A survey showing a surprise uptick in euro zone business growth for August was offset by trade war fears, knocking future expectations to their weakest in over six years.
The pound fell 0.4% to $1.2215 as investors reassessed whether British Prime Minister Boris Johnson had made any progress in convincing the European Union to renegotiate the Brexit agreement.
German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s comments on Thursday that a solution to the Irish border question could be found before Oct. 31, the deadline for Britain to leave the EU, triggered the biggest one-day gain in the pound against the dollar since May. Against the euro, sterling gained the most in five months. [GBP/]
China’s yuan recovered some ground to trade flat after hitting an 11-1/2 year low.
Spot yuan slid to as low as 7.0992 per dollar, its weakest since March 2008. China’s central bank set the midpoint rate at 7.0572, its weakest level in 11-1/2 years but much stronger than traders had expected.
Washington labelled China a currency manipulator this month after a sharp slide in the yuan. Concern about China’s economy is growing because U.S. tariffs on roughly $150 billion of Chinese goods will take effect from Sept. 1.
Oil prices steadied, on track for a weekly gain. Brent crude oil was flat at $59.90 per barrel, while U.S. crude futures were marginally higher at $55.42 per barrel. [O/R]
Gold eased and was set for its worst week in nearly five months. Spot gold was down 0.2% at $1,495.14 an ounce. [GOL/] Source: Reuters (Reporting by Ritvik Carvalho; additional reporting by Dhara Ranasinghe in London; editing by John Stonestreet and Toby Chopra)