Strategie Grains raises EU wheat forecast, cuts barley and maize

Strategie Grains has increased its monthly forecast for EU soft wheat production and cut its outlook for the bloc’s barley and maize crops as it factored in good harvest indications in countries such as Spain and worsening prospects in France.

For soft wheat, the EU’s main cereal crop, the consultancy projected 2024/25 output at 122.3 million metric tons, up from 121.8 million forecast in June though still down 3% from last season and the lowest level in four years.

France, the EU’s biggest wheat grower and exporter, has endured months of heavy rain. The latest harvest feedback and area estimates suggest soft wheat production could fall below 29 million tons, Strategie Grains said in a monthly cereal report.

That would be well below the French farm ministry’s first crop forecast, which projected a 15% year on year fall in output to 29.7 million tons, while current market expectations see a crop of 28 million tons or less.

The wheat and barley harvests in France and Germany have been disappointing so far and below expectations in both countries, Strategie Grains said.

For barley, it reduced its EU production outlook to 51.3 million tons from 52.2 million last month, though that would be up 8% from last year’s drought-hit crop of 47.5 million tons which was a 12-year low.

Harvest volumes in Spain were rebounding to good levels following dire results last year while wheat and barley yields in Romania and Bulgaria have turned out to be very good, Strategie Grains said.

For maize, harvested in autumn, crops were suffering from hot, dry conditions in southeast Europe, though rain that has hurt wheat and barley fields in western Europe was benefitting maize plants there, it said.

It cut its forecast for EU maize production to 62.0 million tons from 62.6 million projected in June and now 1% below last year’s level.
Source: Reuters (Reporting by Gus Trompiz; editing by Jason Neely)