Strategie Grains raises sunseed crop estimate, cuts rapeseed

Strategie Grains has increased its monthly forecast for this year’s European Union sunseed harvest by more than 200,000 tonnes to 10.16 million tonnes while lowering its rapeseed crop and import estimates, the consultancy said in an oilseed report.

The latest estimate for the sunseed crop, which is mostly harvested in the autumn, would now be 16.8% above 2020 output of 9.95 million tonnes. The upward revision mainly reflected an increased estimate for France, Strategie Grains said.

In rapeseed, Strategie Grain slightly lowered its 2021 crop estimate for the EU to 16.97 million tonnes from 17.03 million estimated last month after taking official statistics into account, it said. The harvest would still be 2.2% above last year, the consultancy said.

The forecast for EU rapeseed imports this season was also reduced, with the consultancy citing low global availability and stronger demand.

As a result of lower imports, rapeseed crushing in the EU was expected to fall sharply, benefiting sunseed and soybeans, which have better crushing margins, it said.

“The fall in supply (greater than that of demand) leads to a further drop in stocks. The EU rapeseed balance is extremely tight in 2021/22. EU stocks are forecast at an all-time low level of 0.7 million tonnes at the end of June 2022,” it said.

Rapeseed prices have soared in recent weeks, underpinned by tight supply in Europe and persisting strength in related vegetable oil markets. The front month on Euronext futures February COMG2 hit a new contract high on Monday. GRA/EU

“Currently, rapeseed are stagnating at high levels, and that makes rapeseed less attractive than rival oilseeds in most parts of Europe. Prices are therefore set to gradually decline, especially as the sunseed harvest nears its end and U.S. soybean harvesting moves along rapidly,” Strategie Grains said.
Source: Reuters (Reporting by Sybille de La Hamaide Editing by David Goodman)