Tankers: China’s Crude Oil Imports Slightly Lower This Year

Crude oil imports have been growing this year, albeit at a smaller rate than 2023, with China, the world’s leading importer, slowing down its demand. In its latest weekly report, shipbroker Banchero Costa said that “2023 has been another positive period for crude oil trade, despite the high oil prices and risks of economic recession. In Jan-Dec 2023, global crude oil loadings went up +4.7% y-o-y to 2186.8 mln tonnes, excluding all cabotage trade, according to vessels tracking data from Refinitiv. The positive trend continued in JanOct 2024, when global crude oil loadings increased by +0.8% y-o-y to 1833.9 mln t, from 1819.9 mln t in the same period of 2023. Exports from the Arabian Gulf were down by -0.4% y-o-y to 725.5 mln t in Jan-Oct 2024, and accounted for 39.6% of global seaborne trade. Exports from Russian ports (including Kazakh crude) also declined by -0.9% y-o-y to 192.8 mln tonnes, or 10.5% of global trade. From the USA, exports increased by +2.8% y-o-y to 167.6 mln t. From South America, exports surged by +15.1% y-o-y to 167.4 mln t. From ASEAN loadings surged by +8.6% y-o-y to 107.0 mln t”.

“In terms of demand, the top seaborne importer of crude oil in Jan-Oct 2024 was Mainland China, accounting for 23.1% of global trade. Volumes into China declined by -1.3% y-o-y to 424.8 mln t in Jan-Oct 2024, from 430.6 mln t in Jan-Oct 2023, but were still well above the 362.4 mln t in Jan-Oct 2022. To ASEAN, imports increased by +8.5% y-o-y to 222.7 mln t. To India, volumes increased +2.5% yo-y to 195.2 mln t in Jan-Oct 2024. Mainland China is right now the largest importer of crude oil in the world, with a 23.1% share, once again marginally ahead of the European Union’s 21.6% share. In Jan-Dec 2022, China imported 439.2 mln tonnes of crude oil by sea, excluding cabotage, according to Refinitiv vessel tracking data. This represented a contraction of -2.5% y-o-y compared to the 450.2 mln tonnes imported in 2021.

According to Banchero Costa, “in the full 12 month of 2023, imports into China rebounded strongly by +14.1% y-o-y to 514.5 mln tonnes, which was actually even higher than the record 491.9 mln t in 2020. In Jan-Oct 2024, imports volumes into China corrected slightly downwards by -1.3% y-o-y to 424.8 mln t, from 430.6 mln t in the first 10 months of 2023, but well above the 362.4 mln t in Jan-Oct 2022. About 85 percent of volumes discharged in China in Jan-Oct 2024 were carried in VLCCs, about 5 percent were carried in Suezmaxes, and about 10 percent in Aframaxes. Main crude oil import terminals in China are: Ningbo/Zhoushan (65.4 mln tonnes in Jan-Oct 2024), Lanshan (44.9 mln t), Dongjiakou (31.7), Dalian (29.5), Qingdao (28.1), Zhanjiang (23.5), Huizhou (20.3), Beilun (19.4), Tianjin (19.1), Yantai (18.3), Quanzhou (18.1), Jieyang (14.3), Cezi (12.3), Caofeidian (10.9)”.

Banchero Costa added that “in terms of sources of the shipments, the majority of China’s oil imports arrives from the Middle East. Saudi Arabia is the single largest exporter to China, accounting for 15.1% of volumes in Jan-Oct 2024. In Jan-Oct 2024, China imported 63.9 mln tonnes of crude oil from Saudi Arabia, down -4.4% y-o-y on last year. In the same period, imports from Iraq to China increased by +10.4% yo-y to 51.5 mln t, and from Oman by +3.0% y-o-y to 33.9 mln t. Volumes from the UAE to China declined by -19.9% y-o-y to 25.2 mln t, and from Kuwait declined by -44.2% y-o-y to 10.4 mln t. Direct shipments from Russia declined by -4.1% y-o-y to 44.2 mln t in Jan-Oct 2024. Russia now accounts for just 10 percent of China’s overall seaborne crude oil imports. Imports from ASEAN (which includes some trans-shipment of Iranian and Russian oil) increased by +19.6% y-oy to 53.8 mln t in Jan-Oct 2024, and from South America by +11.4% y-o-y to 39.9 mln t (of which 31.1 mln t from Brazil)”, the shipbroker concluded.
Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News Worldwide