Tankers: Flat US Crude Oil Exports Underscore Modest 2024

Global seaborne crude oil loadings were mostly flat during 2024. In its latest weekly report, shipbroker Banchero Costa said that “after a positive 2023, when global crude oil loadings increased by +4.6% y-o-y, things got quieter in 2024. In Jan-Dec 2024, global crude oil loadings went up by a modest +0.4% yo-y to 2194.7 mln tonnes, excluding all cabotage trade, according to vessels tracking data from Refinitiv. Exports from the Arabian Gulf were down by -0.2% y-o-y to 873.3 mln t in Jan-Dec 2024, and accounted for 39.8% of global seaborne crude trade. Exports from Russian ports (including oil of Kazakh origin) also declined by -0.5% y-o-y to 229.5 mln tonnes, or 10.5% of global trade. From South America, exports surged by +11.3% y-o-y to 199.5 mln t. From the USA, exports ended up flat +0.0% y-o-y at 197.9 mln tonnes in Jan-Dec 2024. From West Africa, exports declined by -1.6% y-o-y to 170.8 mln t. From ASEAN exports surged by +7.0% y-o-y to 123.2 mln t in Jan-Dec 2024 (but this inevitably includes re-export of Russian origin volumes).

According to Banchero Costa, “in terms of demand, the top seaborne importer of crude oil in Jan-Dec 2024 was Mainland China, accounting for 23.3% of global trade. Volumes into China declined by -0.5% y-o-y to 512.3 mln t in Jan-Dec 2024, from 514.9 mln t in Jan-Dec 2023. Imports to the EU27 increased marginally by +0.2% y-o-y to 473.9 mln t, accounting for 21.5% of global trade. To ASEAN, imports increased by +7.1% y-o-y to 264.5 mln t (again this includes Russian volumes which were later re-exported elsewhere in Asia). To India, volumes increased by +2.6% y-o-y to 234.0 mln t in Jan-Dec 2024. To S. Korea, imports declined by -1.7% y-o-y to 138.3 mln t. To Japan, imports declined by -7.0% yo-y to 113.1 mln t in Jan-Dec 2024. The Unites States have been arguably the biggest winner from the sanctions regime imposed on Russia and from OPEC’s attempt to support oil prices through cutting production quotas”.

“Exports from the USA sharply increased in recent years, to the point that it is now the third largest exporter in the world, after Saudi and Russia. The USA now account for 9.0% of global crude oil loadings (excluding cabotage). Crude oil exports from the USA increased by +22.9% y-o-y in 2022 and by +19.5% y-o-y in 2023. Volumes from the USA in 2023 were +53.2% higher than in 2019. 2024 started strongly, and in the first 9 months volumes were +3.3% higher than in the same period of 2023. The fourth quarter, however, was very disappointing, with volumes down by -9.5% compared to 4Q 2023. About 56 percent of international crude exports from the USA in Jan-Dec 2024 were loaded in Corpus Christi, about 15 percent from Houston, about 11 percent from Galveston, about 4 percent from LOOP, about 4 percent from Bayport, about 2 percent from Beaumont. Given persisting infrastructure limitations, still only 52 percent of crude oil volumes loaded at USA ports in Jan-Dec 2024 were loaded on VLCCs”, the shipbroker said.

“Most VLCC cargoes are loaded in Corpus Christi, Galveston and LOOP. About 25 percent of volumes are loaded on Suezmaxes, and 21 percent isloaded on Aframaxes. In terms of destinations for the shipments, it is quite diversified, with about 46% to Europe, 39% to Asia, and the rest to the Americas. Direction Europe, about 73.7 mln tonnes(37.2 percent of the total) were shipped from the USA to the European Union in Jan-Dec 2024, whilst about 17.4 mln tonnes (8.8 percent of the total) went to the UK. Specifically, 24.3 mln tonnes were shipped in Jan-Dec 2024 to the Netherlands, 10.8 mln t to France, 11.6 mln t to Spain, 8.0 mln t to Germany, 7.2 mln t to Italy, 3.1 mln to Denmark, 2.4 mln to Sweden. Overall exports from the USA to the European Union declined by -0.9% y-oy in Jan-Dec 2024. Direction Asia, about 21.4 mln tonnes were shipped from the USA to South Korea in Jan-Dec 2024 (10.8% of the USA’stotal), up +5.9% y-o-y. To Mainland China volumes declined by -36.8% y-o-y in Jan-Dec 2024 to 13.4 mln tonnes, after surging by +93.8% y-o-y in Jan-Dec 2023”, Banchero Costa concluded.
Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News Worldwide