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Tankers Market Steady During November

Dirty tanker spot freight rates were steady in November, although the expected year-end upward momentum has yet to materialize, OPEC said in its latest monthly report. For VLCCs, the spot freight rates on the Middle East-to-East route averaged WS43, up 2% m-o-m. While this represented an improvement over the same month last year, it is still well below pre-COVID levels for this time of year. For Suezmax, rates on the West Africa-to-US Gulf Coast (USGC) averaged WS61 for a decline of 6%. Aframax rates on the Med to Northwest Europe route averaged WS105, representing a gain of 2% m-o-m. In contrast, clean tanker spot rates strengthened, with gains both east and west of Suez. Middle East to East flows averaged WS118, indicating a gain of 4% m-o-m. Optimism for the end of the year has been shaken somewhat by the uncertainty around the impact of a new COVID-19 variant on economic activities.

Spot fixtures
The latest estimates show global spot fixtures declined in November, falling for the second-straight month. Fixtures averaged 13.23 mb/d, representing a decline of 2.5 mb/d, or 16%. Compared to the previous year, spot fixtures were 2.9 mb/d, or around 18%, lower.

OPEC spot fixtures fell m-o-m in November, dropping 1.6 mb/d, or around 16%, to average 8.32 m/b. Compared with the same month last year, OPEC spot fixtures were about 2.2 mb/d, or around 21%, lower. Middle East-to-East fixtures declined 0.3 mb/d m-o-m, or around 6%, to average 5.4 mb/d. This was a drop of close to 1.0 mb/d, or 15%, compared to the same month last year. Fixtures from the Middle East-to-West fell 0.7 mb/d m-o-m in November, or 56%, to average 0.6 mb/d. The route was around 0.3 mb/d, or 34%, lower compared to the same month last year. Outside the Middle East, fixtures declined 0.6 mb/d m-o-m, or almost 19%, to average 2.4 mb/d. Y-o-y, fixtures were around 0.9 mb/d, or close to 28%, lower.

Sailings and arrivals
OPEC sailings increased in November to average 22.2 mb/d. M-o-m, OPEC sailings were 0.2 mb/d, or about 1%, higher. Compared to the same month last year, OPEC sailings were 1.8 mb/d, or close to 9%, higher. Middle East sailings were up 2.1 mb/d in November, or about 1%, to average 16.6 mb/d. Y-o-y, sailings from the region rose 2.2 mb/d, or around 16%, compared with the same month last year. Crude arrivals were higher in all regions except Europe in November. Arrivals in North America rose around 0.4 mb/d, or 4%, to average 9.1 mb/d. Compared with the same month last year, arrivals were 1.5 mb/d, or over 19%, higher. Arrivals in Europe were broadly flat m-o-m in November, averaging 12.6 mb/d, but some 2.2 mb/d, or 22%, higher than the same month last year. In the Far Asia, arrivals increased 2.0 mb/d m-o-m, or around 15%, to average 15.6 mb/d. Y-o-y, arrivals were 4.6 mb/d, or 41%, higher. West Asia arrivals rose around 0.7 mb/d, or 9%, in November to average just under 8.0 mb/d, representing a gain of 2.6 mb/d, or almost 49%, compared to the same month last year.

Dirty tanker freight rates

Very large crude carriers (VLCCs)
The expected year-end upward momentum failed to materialize in November, with VLCC spot rates rising only sluggishly from an already low level. On average, VLCC spot freight rates rose 3% m-o-m in November, with rates to the east showing an improvement while rates on western voyages remained flat. However, y-o-y, VLCC rates were up 54% over the very poor performance seen in the previous year. Rates on the Middle East-to-East route rose 2% m-o-m to average WS43 points. Y-o-y, rates were 65% higher. Rates on the Middle East-to-West route were unchanged m-o-m, averaging WS24 points. Y-o-y, rates were 41% higher. The West Africa-to-East route edged higher, gaining 2% m-o-m in November to average WS45. Rates were 55% higher compared with November 2020.

Suezmax
Suezmax rates lost some of the previous month’s gains, declining 6% m-o-m in November, amid a softer market in the Atlantic basin. Rates were 93% higher than the exceptional lows seen in November 2020. After a strong gain in the previous month, rates on West Africa-to-USGC route fell back, declining 6% m-o-m to average WS61. Compared to the same month last year, rates were 97% higher. Spot freight rates on the USGC-to-Europe route also edged lower following the strong gains seen over the previous two months, dropping 5% m-o-m to average WS56 points. This was still a 93% gain compared to the same month last year.

Aframax
Aframax rates maintained the improvements seen over previous months, rising 2% m-o-m in November. Y-o-y, rates were 93% higher. Med routes continued to see gains in November. The Cross-Med route averaged WS117, representing an increase of 7% compared with the previous month. Y-o-y, rates were 92% higher. On the Mediterranean-toNWE route, rates rose 2% m-o-m to average WS105. Compared with the same month last year, rates on the route were 102% higher

In contrast, the Caribbean-to-US East Coast (USEC) route fell back from the strong showing the month before, declining 5% m-o-m to average WS124, while rates were 80% higher y-o-y. The Indonesia-to-East route continued to move higher for the second month in a row, gaining 7% m-o-m to average WS105 in November. Y-o-y, rates on the route were 102% higher.
Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News Worldwide

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