U.S. crude stocks likely rose 1.6 mln bbls in week, products seen down

U.S. crude oil stocks were expected to have risen for a fourth straight week, while gasoline and distillate inventories were seen falling last week, a preliminary Reuters poll showed on Monday.

Six analysts polled by Reuters estimated on average that crude stocks increased by about 1.6 million barrels in the week to Nov. 12.

Crude inventories USOILC=ECI rose by 1 million barrels in the week to Nov. 5, compared with analysts’ expectations for an increase of 2.1 million barrels. The increase was due in part to a 3.1 million-barrel release from the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve, the largest since July 2017.

The poll was conducted ahead of reports from the American Petroleum Institute, an industry group, due at 4:30 p.m. ET (2030 GMT) on Tuesday, and the EIA, statistical arm of the U.S. Department of Energy, due at 10:30 a.m. EDT (1430 GMT) on Wednesday.

ACTUAL FOR WEEK (EIA) ENDED 11/05/21
CHANGE VS PREVIOUS WEEK
YR-AGO CHANGE WEEK ENDED 11/13/20
CRUDE
1.6 MLN
435.1 MLN
1.0 MLN
0.8 MLN
DISTILLATE
-1.6 MLN
124.5 MLN
-2.6 MLN
-5.2 MLN
GASOLINE
-0.7 MLN
212.7 MLN
-1.6 MLN
2.6 MLN
REFINERY RUNS
0.7 PCT PT
86.7%
0.4 PCT PT
2.9 PCT PTS
NATGAS STORAGE FORECAST
+21 BCF TO +26 BCF (FOUR FORECASTS)

Analysts estimated that stockpiles of gasoline USOILC=ECI likely fell about 700,000 barrels last week.

Distillate inventories USOILD=ECI, which include diesel and heating oil, were expected to have fallen by about 1.6 million barrels.

The rate of refinery utilization USOIRU=ECI was seen rising 0.7 percentage point from 86.7% of total capacity for the week ended Nov. 5, the poll found.

All figures for fuel stocks are in millions of barrels. Refinery runs change is measured in percentage points.

Organization
Crude
Distillate
Gasoline
Refinery Runs
Commodity Research Group
1.0
-0.3
0.8
0.4

Confluence
2.0
-2.0
-1.0
1.0

DTN
1.2
-0.8
-0.5
0.2

Excel Futures
2.7
-2.5
-1.8
0.4

Price Futures Group
-3.5
-2.0
-2.0
1.0

Ritterbusch Associates
2.0
-1.5
0.4
1.0
Source: Reuters (Reporting by Ashitha Shivaprasad in Bengaluru; Editing by David Gregorio)