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U.S. natgas output to hit record high in 2023, demand to fall -EIA

U.S. natural gas production will rise to a record high in 2023 while demand will fall, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said in its Short Term Energy Outlook (STEO) on Tuesday.

EIA projected dry gas production to rise to 100.67 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) in 2023 and 101.69 bcfd in 2024 from a record 98.09 bcfd in 2022.

The agency also projected that domestic gas consumption would fall to 86.40 bcfd in 2023 and 86.06 bcfd in 2024 from a record 88.54 bcfd in 2022.

If correct, 2024 would be the first time since 2015 that output rises for four years in a row. It would also be the first time demand declines for two years in a row since 2006.

EIA’s latest projections for 2023 were higher than its February forecast of 100.27 bcfd for supply but lower than its February forecast of 87.04 bcfd for demand.

The agency forecast that average U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports would reach 12.07 bcfd in 2023 and 12.73 bcfd in 2024, up from a record 10.59 bcfd in 2022.

That 2023 LNG forecast was higher than the 11.78 bcfd EIA forecast in February due to the restart of the Freeport LNG export plant in Texas.

EIA projected that U.S. coal production would fall from 592.2 million short tons in 2022 to 552.3 million short tons in 2023 and 502.6 million short tons in 2024, the lowest since 1963, as renewable sources of power displace coal-fired plants.

As gas demand eases and power producers burn less coal, EIA projected that carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels would fall from 4.976 billion tonnes in 2022 to 4.799 billion tonnes in 2023 before rising to 4.829 billion tonnes in 2024 as the country burns more oil.
Source: Reuters (Reporting by Scott DiSavino; Editing by Chris Reese and Mark Porter)

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