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UK GAS-Day-ahead gains on forecast for colder weather

The British wholesale gas price for day-ahead delivery rose on Monday morning due to colder temperatures expected on Tuesday, while other contracts traded below Friday’s close.

* The day-ahead gas price was up by 0.15 pence at 50.25 pence per therm at 0950 GMT.

* Within-day gas price declined by 0.75 pence to 50.25 p/therm.

* Weather in a week ahead is expected to be mild, with temperatures above the seasonal norm apart from a brief drop tomorrow, a Refinitiv analyst said.

* Within-day temperatures are forecast at 5.4 degrees Celsius, 4.1 C warmer than previously expected, Refinitiv weather data shows. Tuesday temperatures are predicted to be almost unchanged from the previous forecast at 3.8 C.

* Gas flows from Norway fell in the morning by 27 million cubic metres (mcm) to 99 mcm/day, with total Norwegian production at 331 mcm/day, 34 mcm lower compared to a record high on Friday.

* Despite a drop in imports from Norway, the gas system is oversupplied by around 7.3 million cubic metres (mcm), with total flows forecast at 342 mcm/day and demand at 334.7 mcm, National Grid data shows.

* Flows via the BBL pipeline from Belgium remain strong at 40 mcm/day. Flows via the Interconnector pipeline are expected at around 3 mcm/day.

* Overall LNG send-out is slightly down but flows from the South Hook terminal are expected to rise by 6 mcm to 40 mcm/day.

* A total of six tankers will arrive at British terminals by Feb. 13.

* The UK month-ahead is down by 0.90 p/therm at 49.20 p/therm.

* The Dutch day-ahead price at the TTF hub is down 0.33 euros per megawatt hour (MWh) at 18.90 euros/MWh.

* The UK day-ahead baseload price fell by 5.30 pounds/MWh to 53.25 pounds/MWh.

* The benchmark Dec-19 EU carbon contract fell by 0.37 euro to 21.62 euros a tonne.
Source: Reuters (Reporting by Ekaterina Kravtsova, editing by Louise Heavens)

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