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UK GAS-Prices fall on warm weather forecast

British wholesale gas prices fell on Monday morning on expectations of a drop in gas demand due to forecasts for milder weather.

* The day-ahead gas price was down 1.95 pence at 37.45 pence per therm at 0856 GMT.

* Gas for immediate delivery was down 1.80 pence at 37.85 p/therm.

* UK temperatures are forecast to rise above the seasonal norm next week and forecasts were raised on Monday, Refinitiv weather data showed.

* On Monday, gas demand is forecast at 243.4 million cubic metres (mcm) and supply at almost 253 mcm/day, leaving the system oversupplied by 9.5 mcm, National Grid data showed.

* Flows from Norway to Britain are down by 3 mcm at around 80 mcm/day but are expected to rise.

* Refinitiv analysts expect an outage due to a gas leak at the Aasta Hansteen field to end tomorrow. It affected Norwegian exports by around 23 mcm/day in recent days, impacting flows via the Langeled pipeline, they said.

* “We expect that the latest announcement indicates a definitive return of field’s production and there is a risk of possible Langeled ramp up in the coming days,” the analysts added.

* LNG send-out is down by around 18 mcm on Monday.

* Britain expects to receive four LNG tankers this week.

* Wind power generation is expected at around 10.6 gigawatts on Monday and around 10 gigawatts (GW) on Tuesday, which may cut gas-for-power demand. Total UK wind capacity is around 12 GW.

* Wind provided 25.5 percent of Britain’s power generation on Monday, with gas accounting for a lower than usual 27.7 percent.

* The May gas contract was down 0.80 p at 37.30 p/therm.

* The day-ahead gas price at the Dutch TTF hub was down 0.21 euro at 15.73 euros per megawatt hour.

* The benchmark Dec-19 EU carbon contract was up 0.54 euro at 27.12 euros a tonne.
Source: Reuters (Reporting by Ekaterina Kravtsova, editing by Louise Heavens)

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