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UK GAS-Prices rise on colder weather after Wednesday’s oversupply

British wholesale gas prices rose on Thursday after a surge of imports from Norway receded, leaving the system balanced, and colder temperatures pushed up the demand forecast.

* Day-ahead gas rose 1.9 pence to 67.40 pence per therm (p/therm) by 0800 GMT.

* The within-day gas price was up 3.55 pence to 67.25 p/therm.

* The gas system was balanced, according to National Grid data, with both supply and demand seen at 204 million cubic metres (mcm).

* Flows from Norway decreased significantly after a surge on Wednesday caused oversupply in Britain, weighing on prices.

* Flows along the Langeled and Vesterled pipelines from Norway were down 28 mcm collectively to 60 mcm.

* Temperature forecasts were cut by 2.5 degrees Celsius to 9.8 degrees Celsius, according to Refinitiv data.

* That has increased expectations of domestic gas usage by 16 mcm to 123 mcm.

* An influx on LNG deliveries in Continental Europe diverted Norwegian gas flows to Britain on Wednesday, causing the oversupply, although the island too is set to receive several LNG tankers.

* Both Britain and the Netherlands received an LNG tanker on Thursday while Belgium is set to get unprecedented volumes of LNG from six tankers by Nov. 1.

* Day-ahead and within-day prices have both fallen over 15 percent in the past four weeks from peaks of almost 80 p/therm during a period normally characterised by rising prices as temperatures drop.

* Nevertheless, both are at 10-year highs for this time of the year, according to Refinitiv Eikon data, with October 2012 and 2013 prices the closest to Thursday’s levels.

* Peak wind generation is expected to drop to 2.5 gigawatt (GW) from 4.4 gigawatts (GW) on Wednesday.

* November contract up 0.27 pence at 70.90 p/therm.

* Day-ahead Dutch gas at the TTF hub is down 0.43 euro at 25.10 euros per megawatt hour.

* The benchmark Dec-18 EU carbon contract fell by 0.09 euro to 19.20 euros a tonne.
Source: Reuters (Reporting by Sabina Zawadzki; Editing by Adrian Croft)

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