US exports record annual number of LNG cargoes to Asia via Cape of Good Hope in H1 2024

The Cape of Good Hope remains the trade passage of choice for US LNG exporters looking to reach Asia, with a record number of cargoes making the voyage this year.

A total of 123 US LNG cargoes have travelled to Asia via the Cape of Good Hope so far this year, according to data from S&P Global Commodity Insights. This is the largest number of cargoes to make the journey in a year since Commodity Insights began recording the data in 2010. Annual transits were last seen higher at 120 cargoes in 2021, with just over half making the voyage in H1.
So far in May, 29 cargoes took the longest route to reach Asia, after a record number of monthly transits was set in April at 30.

Alongside the record number of cargoes transiting the Cape of Good Hope from the US to Asia, a record volume — around 8.41 million mt — has made the journey so far this year as well.

Platts, part of Commodity Insights, assessed the Gulf Coast Marker for US FOB cargoes loading 30-60 days forward at $10.01/MMBtu on May 24, down 37 cents/MMBtu on the day.

Exporters pivot from Panama, Suez canals

Transits via the Panama and Suez Canals have seen a sharp drop in 2024. So far this year, 16 US LNG cargoes have reached Asia via the Panama Canal and less than half of that have transited the Suez Canal. In comparison, the Panama Canal saw 64 cargoes make the journey between January-May in 2023, while the Suez Canal saw 33.

The Cape’s popularity steadily grew over the prior year, beginning with a historic drought in Panama which impacted water levels at the country’s canal. Lower water levels led to an increase in wait times and bottlenecks, forcing many to pivot to utilize the Suez Canal instead.

However, transits via the Suez Canal halted in January, as attacks by Houthi rebels in the Bab al-Mandab Strait to commercial shipping vessels forced the maritime industry to pivot once again in favor of the Cape of Good Hope.

Rainy season begins in Panama

While the market continues to favor the Cape of Good Hope, some remain watchful for news out of Panama as the country enters its wet season and tensions in the Middle East remain heightened.

“It’s too early to make drastic changes but it’ll come eventually I think… worth keeping an eye on,” one Atlantic-based trader recently said.

For its part, the Panama Canal Authority is holding meetings with LNG customers, a source familiar with the matter said.

A spokesperson for the Panama Canal Authority also confirmed they are engaging with LNG producers regarding ways to increase demand for crossings now that water levels are recovering following a prolonged drought, according to recent press reports.

The reports, which the spokesperson said were accurate, said that the canal authority was drafting a survey to identify the needs of their LNG customers, regarding frequency and permits. This could result in allocation modifications benefiting the LNG segment, following consensus with the parties involved, according to the reports.
Source: Platts