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US gasoline prices fall to seasonal lows as NYMEX RBOB sheds 14 cents

US gasoline outright prices dipped to seasonal lows July 19 as the front-month NYMEX RBOB futures contract fell 14.32 cents/gal on news of OPEC+ raising production limits.

The NYMEX August RBOB futures contract settled 14.32 cents/gal lower day on day at $2.1104/gal.

Gulf Coast benchmark conventional unleaded (M2) fell 50 points NYMEX August RBOB minus 6.25 cents/gal.

As a flat price, M2 fell 14.82 cents/gal to $2.0479/gal, its lowest level since May 28 when it was assessed at $2.0319/gal.

Market sources noted a slowing in trading activity as participants sought to wait out the volatility in the front-month NYMEX RBOB futures contract.

One trader said the fall was not unexpected, given the recent bullishness in the market.

“The market generally was feeling rather bullish prior to today so it was set up for a fall like this, in reality,” the source said.

Meanwhile, 41st cycle CBOB and RBOB fell 13.57 cents/gal to NYMEX RBOB futures contract to $2.0354/gal and $2.0829/gal, respectively.

CBOB and RBOB were last lower June 17 at $1.9947/gal and $2.0817/gal, respectively.

Early morning market activity was muted on the Atlantic Coast, as “everyone was confused by what was happening in crude flat price,” a market source said.

New York Harbor barge and Buckeye Pipeline gasoline differentials saw minimal movements, despite flat prices falling to two-month lows.

New York Harbor barge and Buckeye Pipeline RBOB gained 10 points to NYMEX August RBOB minus 0.25 cents/gal and CBOB rose 25 points to August futures minus 3.5 cents/gal.

On an outright basis, RBOB and CBOB fell to $2.1079/gal and $2.0754/gal, respectively. RBOB was last lower on May 25 at $2.1073/gal, and CBOB was at its lowest since $2.0325/gal on May 21.

In the Midwest, outright prices decreased across the board with Chicago generic pipeline CBOB falling to its lowest level since May.

The Chicago generic CBOB differential shed 1.50 cents to NYMEX August RBOB futures minus 5.50 cents/gal. On an outright basis, CBOB fell to $2.0554/gal, a low since $2.0519/gal on May 28.

Elsewhere in the Midwest, Tulsa suboctane and premium outright prices have been at their lowest since mid-June, decreasing to $2.0529/gal and $2.3354/gal respectively. Premium 91 showed the largest movement rising 3 cents based on a trade heard at NYMEX August futures plus 22.50 cents/gal

On the West Coast, gasoline outright prices fell to summertime lows but remained strong as differentials rose.

The Portland suboctane differential saw the largest gain in the region, up 3.75 cents to NYMEX August RBOB plus 17 cents/gal, or $2.2804/gal. The Portland suboctane outright was last lower on June 7 at $2.2631/gal.

Further south, the San Francisco CARBOB outright price fell to $2.2104/gal, a low since April 27 at $2.2088/gal.

The July San Francisco CARBOB differential, however, rose 1.5 cents to August futures plus 10 cents/gal while LA CARBOB rose 50 points to futures plus 8.50 cents/gal.

The South Coast Air Quality Management District reported an hour of flaring at Valero’s Wilmington refinery in the Los Angeles area on July 16 but market sources said there was little impact to the market.
Source: Platts

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