USDA August soy crush estimated at near 3-year low of 167.6 million bushels, analysts say

The U.S. soybean crush likely dropped in August to a near three-year low of 5.028 million short tons, or 167.6 million bushels, analysts surveyed by Reuters estimated ahead of a monthly U.S. Department of Agriculture report due on Tuesday.

If the average of nine estimates is realized, it would be down 13.4% from the 193.4 million bushels crushed in July 2024 and down 0.8% from the August 2023 crush of 169.0 million bushels. It would also be the smallest crush for any month since September 2021 and the lowest August crush total since 2017.

Industry-wide processing capacity has swelled in recent years as several new plants have opened and others have been expanded, largely to seize upon rising demand for soyoil to make biofuel. Many facilities, however, were idled in August for seasonal maintenance and repairs ahead of the U.S. harvest, which is expected to be the largest ever, analysts said.

Crush estimates ranged from 166.0 million to 169.4 million bushels, with a median of 167.5 million bushels.

The USDA is scheduled to release its monthly fats and oils report at 2 p.m. CDT (1900 GMT) on Tuesday.

U.S. soyoil stocks as of Aug. 30, 2024, were estimated at 1.627 billion pounds based on the average of estimates from six analysts.

The oil stocks estimate, if realized, would reflect a 19.0% decline from 2.009 billion pounds at the end of July and an 8.2% drop from year-ago oil stocks totaling 1.772 billion pounds.

Analysts’ estimates ranged from 1.500 billion to 1.690 billion pounds, with a median of 1.646 billion pounds.

The National Oilseed Processors Association said its members, which account for about 95% of soybeans processed in the United States, crushed 158.008 million bushels in August, a near three-year low. End-of-month oil stocks fell to a 10-month low of 1.138 billion pounds.
Source: Reuters (Reporting by Karl Plume in Chicago; editing by Jonathan Oatis)