Week ahead: Jobs, OPEC+, credit reports under scrutiny
It’s a calendar reset for the coming week: the end of the second quarter and the month of June. That only means one thing: another month of new data kicks in. Who’s hiring? Who’s not? tops the Reuters Business Calendar for the week of June 28th.
1. Yes, we’re hiring!
Out with the old, in with the new. Economists hope the jobs report released on Friday July 2nd will be better than the previous two. The consensus forecast calls for 675,000 net new hires for June. The unemployment rate is expected to fall to 5.6 percent. The beginning of summer hiring could make this a tricky number to forecast AND there’s the latest trend of Americans quitting rather than going back to their old jobs. We’ll have to see how all that plays out.
2. Oiling the economic wheels
Energy keeps the global economy going and so there will be a lot of focus on the OPEC+ meeting scheduled for Thursday. The group of major oil producing nations has eased up on the record supply cut made last year by returning 2.1 million barrels of oil per day through July. But with demand now coming back and prices at two-year highs, energy watchers wonder if the group will agree to release more oil starting in August. Whatever they decide could help set the trajectory for inflation in the U.S. and abroad.
Chris Zaccarelli, chief investment officer at the Independent Advisor Alliance.
“As goes the price of oil, so goes inflation expectations and also the yield on the 10 year. The correlation between the price of oil, which has been moving higher recently, and the 10 year yield is pretty high. And so it’s very important we think that as oil prices go higher, that could move yields higher and that would move the stock market as well.”
The Fed is keeping its eyes on hotter inflation and cooler job growth to determine when it will make its next move.
3. Credit reporting overhaul
If you ever go to buy a house or buy a car, you’ll know how important your credit score can be. But with so many data hacks, so much of what can determine your score and show up on your credit report is out of our hands. Some consumer groups also complain about what does and what does not go into the report and how hard it is to fix errors. Lawmakers will take up the issue on Tuesday. The House Financial Services Committee will delve into “A Biased, Broken System: Examining Proposals to Overhaul Credit Reporting to Achieve Equity.”
4. Earnings season returns
Earnings season is about to restart again. Walgreen’s is up on Thursday. This is key because it will be the first quarterly results under new CEO Rosalind Brewer. She is one of only a handful of Black women to lead a top publicly-traded company. Besides that, Wall Street will be eager to hear how drug store chains like Walgreen’s was able to get those coming to the store for testing and vaccines to load up on other items. Wall Street is looking for earnings of $1.17 a share on revenues of $33.7 billion.
5. Unveiling new tech
Finally, the premier event for the world of mobile devices is back. The Mobile World Congress returns after the health crisis caused its cancelation in 2020. Monday’s kick-off event in Barcelona comes by way of a virtual presentation by Samsung, where it will take the wraps off a new device. Here’s a hint: it won’t be a smartphone. It’ll be a smartwatch.