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ENGINE: Europe & Africa Bunker Fuel Availability Outlook

HSFO supplies are tightening in several Mediterranean and South African ports this week, while rough weather has disrupted bunkering in the Gibraltar Strait again. ARA’s independent fuel oil stocks were slightly lower last week, but are still far above their five-year average. The stocks remain high despite a recent pull for cargoes from the east. Fuel oil has been particularly tight in Singapore in recent months and viable arbitrage economics have attracted Russian and European fuel oil producers to export increasing volumes for March delivery to Singapore. Lead times for ...

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ADNOC to base OSPs for crude exports on Murban futures contract from June: ICE

Official selling prices for Abu Dhabi National Oil Co.’s crude exports will be based on the soon-to-be-launched ICE Murban Futures Contract from June, the Intercontinental Exchange said Feb. 24. The OSP for ADNOC’s flagship Murban crude will directly reflect the futures contract, while the Upper Zakum, Das and Umm Lulu grades will be priced at a differential to the Murban price as set by the futures contract. ICE plans to launch an Abu Dhabi-based exchange, on which the Murban futures contract and related cash-settled derivatives and inter-commodity spreads will trade, ...

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West Newton oil drilling expansion ‘could blight area’

Plans to expand an oil and gas drilling site could “blight” the area, according to local councillors and residents. Rathlin Energy is considering adding six more wells to its site near West Newton in East Yorkshire. It said it was committed to a public consultation before deciding whether to apply for planning permission. If it was approved the site could see up to 25 oil tankers driving in and out daily over a 20 year period. Harry Clark, who lives in nearby New Ellerby, said: “We really must think very ...

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Malaysia’s Petronas makes oil discovery at Hidayah-1 exploration well in Indonesia

Malaysia state oil firm Petroliam Nasional Berhad, or Petronas, on Wednesday said has made an oil discovery at the Hidayah-1 exploration well in Indonesia through its subsidiary PC North Madura II Ltd. The well, located within the North Madura II Production Sharing Contract (PSC) offshore East Java, encountered an oil-bearing carbonate build-up with good reservoir qualities in the Ngimbang carbonate formation, Petronas said. Source: Reuters (Reporting by Mei Mei Chu, editing by Louise Heavens)

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Morgan Stanley sees Brent at $70/bbl in third quarter on improving market

Morgan Stanley expects Brent crude prices to climb to $70 per barrel in third quarter on “signs of a much improved market” including prospects of improving demand. “The stars have aligned for the oil market even faster than expected,” the bank said in a note on Monday. Morgan Stanley noted, “new COVID-19 cases are falling fast globally, mobility statistics are bottoming out and are starting to improve, and in non-OECD countries, refineries are already running as hard as before COVID-19.” Inventories drawing fast, time spreads becoming deeply backwardated and stronger ...

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World Coronavirus Dispatch: Oil market emerges from the depths of pandemic

Indonesia to see sharpest surge in wealthy people Fuelled by the vaccination-based recovery, Indonesia is set to see a 67 per cent growth surge in the number of people becoming high net worth individuals over the period of five years through 2025, according to a Knight-Frank report. Indonesia’s surge comfortably beats China, which is seventh on the list with an expected 46 per cent rise in the wealthy. India takes the second spot with a projected annual growth rate of 63 per cent over the next five years. Poland, Sweden, ...

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Mexico’s support for Pemex to drive widening fiscal deficit, Moody’s says

Mexico’s fiscal deficit will widen to 4.1% of gross domestic product this year, with ongoing support for ailing state oil company Petroleos Mexicanos (Pemex) driving up debt, ratings agency Moody’s Investors Service said on Wednesday. Pemex will need $14.7 billion in government support this year alone, Moody’s said in a statement. This support will ratchet up the fiscal deficit, Moody’s said in a report that highlighted persistent sovereign credit risks despite an expected economic rebound in 2021. Moody’s analyst Ariane Ortiz-Bollin pointed to three credit risk factors despite the rosier ...

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China discovers oil and gas field in Bohai Sea

The China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC) announced Monday that it has discovered a field in the Bohai Sea with estimated reserves of crude oil and natural gas totaling 100 million tonnes of oil equivalent. The field, located at an average depth of 23.2 meters, is known as Bozhong 13-2. It is situated in the middle of the Bohai Sea, 140 km away from north China’s Tianjin Municipality, said the CNOOC. Drilled to a depth of 5,223 meters so far, the field’s exploratory well has encountered oil and gas pay ...

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Middle East Crude-Benchmarks rise; Malaysian grade strengthens

Middle East crude benchmarks Oman and Dubai rose on Wednesday, with the Oman differential rebounding back to a premium in volatile trading as the April-loading trade cycle approaches its end. The Brent/Dubai Exchange of Futures for Swaps (EFS) , or Brent’s premium over Dubai, fell to $2.86 at Singapore market’s close, from a 15-month high of $3.17 in the previous session, as oil futures slipped on U.S. inventory data. ASIA-PACIFIC CRUDE: Spot premiums for Asia’s regional sweet crude hold firm as ConocoPhillips sold a cargo of Malaysian Kimanis crude loading ...

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US Energy Default Rate to Fall, Risk Remains for Small Issuers

A number of highly-levered liquidity strained small energy issuers on Fitch’s Top Bonds (TBOC) and Top Loans of Concern (TLOC) lists remain vulnerable to default, despite our expectation of a significantly lower energy default rate in 2021 relative to 2020, says Fitch Ratings. We project the US energy high-yield (HY) and institutional leveraged loan default rate will decline to 6% and 8%, respectively, this year compared with 14.0% and 19.6% at YE 2020, due to higher oil prices and refinancing of near-term maturities as capital markets reopened in 4Q20. Liquidity ...

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Kazakhstan’s Tengiz output crimped by OPEC+ as pandemic slows expansion

Oil production at Kazakhstan’s flagship Tengiz field fell by 11% in 2020 to 577,000 b/d, the Chevron-led operating consortium said Feb. 23, as it looks to get back on track with expansion work held up by COVID-19. In a statement, Tengizchevroil said it had accounted for 35% of Kazakhstan’s 2020 oil production, which was reduced by the country’s participation in OPEC+ cuts imposed in response to global overproduction and a collapse in demand last year. Tengiz crude, derived from the world’s deepest supergiant oil field on the shores of the ...

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Oil prices slip on surprise build in U.S. crude stocks

Oil prices were lower on Wednesday after industry data showed a surprise build in U.S. crude stocks last week as a deep freeze in the southern states curbed demand from refineries that were forced to shut. Crude stockpiles rose by 1 million barrels in the week to Feb. 19, the American Petroleum Institute (API) reported on Tuesday, against estimates for a draw of 5.2 million barrels in a Reuters poll. API data showed refinery crude runs fell by 2.2 million bpd. Brent crude futures slipped by 6 cents, or 0.1%, ...

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BofA hikes 2021 Brent price view by $10/bbl on strong oil balances

Bank of America (BofA) Global Research lifted its forecast for Brent crude oil prices for this year citing tighter supplies due to the Texas freeze and OPEC+ output curbs and unmatched global monetary stimulus, it said in a note. The bank now expects Brent crude oil to average $60 per barrel in 2021, up from a previous estimate of $50. BofA also forecasts West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude prices to average $57 a barrel this year. Brent prices could temporarily spike to $70 a barrel in the second quarter of ...

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Shale producers see deep freeze hitting thousands of barrels of output

Permian-focused shale producers Diamondback Energy Inc, Cimarex Energy Co and Occidental Petroleum Corp said their first-quarter oil output will be hit by a recent winter storm that knocked out power to millions in Texas. While natural gas producers have benefited from a deep freeze forcing closure of wells, shale oil drillers stand on the losing side of the trade as frozen pipes and power supply interruptions are expected to slow an output recovery. Diamondback said the winter storm will remove about four to five days worth of total production from ...

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ENGINE: East of Suez Fuel Bunker Fuel Availability Outlook

Bunker availability continues to be tight for residual fuels in Singapore, while fuels are available at shorter notice in Zhoushan and Fujairah this week. Singapore’s fuel oil stocks fell by 8% in the week to 17 February, when they measured 19.38 million bbls, according to Enterprise Singapore data. That was the lowest levels since December of 2019. The port’s fuel oil stockpiles have been shrinking partly because bunker buyers booked stems ahead of the Lunar New Year holiday, which added pressure on available volumes. Sharply higher fuel oil exports out ...

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