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Dollar pares gains after US retail sales miss expectations in May

The dollar pared gains against the euro on Tuesday after retail sales data indicated signs of exhaustion among U.S. consumers, boosting the case for Federal Reserve rate cuts later this year. U.S. retail sales increased less than expected in May as lower prices for gasoline and motor vehicles weighed on receipts at service stations and auto dealerships. The trend in sales growth has been slowing as higher prices and interest rates force households to prioritize essentials and cut back on discretionary spending. “It may have come later than initially expected, ...

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FX Daily: Euro political risk premium abates, for now

USD: Policy versus politics The dollar started the week moderately offered as market concerns about EU political developments seemed to have temporarily abated. We doubt, however, this week will bring significant relief to investors ahead of the 30 June first round parliamentary vote in France, and it would probably take US domestic developments to take the dollar much lower. This dichotomy between macro (in the US) and politics (in the EU) will remain a key theme for FX into the summer. As discussed in our June edition of FX Talking, ...

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Dollar eases against euro as European political jitters subside

The dollar was modestly weaker against the euro on Monday, as the common currency recovered from the more than one-month lows hit last week driven by political turmoil in Europe. The euro was up 0.1% to $1.0718 on Monday, rebounding from the six-week low of $1.066775 touched last week following news of a snap parliamentary election in France. European markets have been under pressure after President Emmanuel Macron called for a snap election following a trouncing of his ruling centrist party by Marine Le Pen’s eurosceptic National Rally in the ...

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FX Daily: Four G10 central banks in action this week

USD: US calendar may take a back seat FX markets open up in a steady fashion after Friday’s volatility. That session can largely be characterised as investors shifting to more defensive positioning ahead of the French election risk later this month. We do not look for the US data calendar to be a major driver of FX markets this week. The highlight will be Tuesday’s release of US May retail sales, where the Retail Sales Control Group measure is expected to bounce back to 0.4% month-on-month having fallen 0.3% in ...

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Dollar stays strong, political uncertainty saps euro

The dollar held firm on Monday, while the euro traded around more than one-month lows, as political turmoil in Europe ramped up the level of uncertainty among traders, while investors awaited more data to gauge the strength of the U.S. economy. Investors have been contemplating the risk of a budget crisis at the heart of the euro area, as far right and leftist parties gain momentum ahead of France’s snap parliamentary election, pressuring President Emmanuel Macron’s centrist administration. Even after the French financial markets endured a brutal sell-off late last ...

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Sterling on track for best week of year against ailing euro

Sterling was on track for its biggest weekly gain against the euro in nearly seven months on Friday, as investor concerns sparked by France’s snap election continued to pummel the euro zone currency. The euro was broadly flat on the day against sterling at 84.09 pence, but was on course for a nearly 1% weekly fall – its biggest since November 2023. The pound slipped 0.4% on the day against the broadly stronger dollar, to $1.27065. The euro has tumbled across the board this week as opinion polls project that ...

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FX Daily: French political risk takes its toll on the euro

USD: Softer US price data being ignored in FX Yesterday’s release of softer US May PPI data should have sent the dollar lower across the board. After all, it pointed to the May core PCE price data – released on 28 June – coming in at 0.2% or even 0.1% month-on-month. That would be music to the ears of the Federal Reserve. What we saw, however, was the dollar reversing its PPI losses within a couple of hours as European asset markets reacted to an opinion poll showing French President ...

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Yen falls after dovish BOJ; euro limps towards weekly loss

The yen fell to an over one-month low on Friday after the Bank of Japan (BOJ) stood pat on rates and said it would trim bond buying in the future, while the euro, mired in political turmoil, was headed for a weekly loss. Defying market expectations, the BOJ said at the conclusion of its two-day policy meeting it would continue to buy government bonds at the current pace and would only lay out details of itstapering plan for the next one to two years at its July policy meeting. Markets ...

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Bears firm up bets on Asian currencies as US rate cuts remain elusive

Analysts have solidified their bearish positions on most Asian currencies as higher-for-longer U.S. interest rates and a resilient dollar are likely to continue to hurt the local units, a Reuters poll showed on Thursday. The Indonesian rupiah IDR= and the Philippine peso PHP= were the most shorted currencies in the region, with bearish bets on both at multi-week highs, a fortnightly poll of 10 analysts showed. The responses were received before the United States’ May inflation report, which showed prices remained flat, and the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy meeting at ...

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Dollar gains on hawkish Fed, even as inflation cools

The dollar gained on Thursday despite a soft U.S. producer price inflation report for May, after the Federal Reserve adopted a hawkish tone at the conclusion of its meeting on Wednesday. Data on Thursday showed that U.S. producer prices unexpectedly fell in May, with the headline producer price index (PPI) dropping 0.2% last month after advancing by an unrevised 0.5% in April. Core prices were flat, after also seeing a 0.5% increase the prior month. It comes after May’s U.S. consumer price index (CPI) on Wednesday was softer than economists ...

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FX Daily: Investors fall out of love with Latam

USD: Taking cues from today’s PPI figure The DXY dollar index has retraced about half the losses it suffered on the back of yesterday’s softer-than-expected May CPI print. Driving that recovery was yesterday’s FOMC meeting and press conference, where it seemed that the main message from Chair Powell was that inflation forecasts were being revised higher and the Federal Reserve easing cycle could be delayed – according to the median Fed expectation. In this space, we noted previously that Powell had proven dovish over the previous four press conferences. Perhaps ...

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Dollar gains after rates-driven yoyo; yen fragile ahead of BOJ

The dollar edged up on Thursday, recovering some of the previous day’s losses after the Federal Reserve forecast just one rate cut this year, although softer-than-expected U.S. inflation tempered some of those gains. The yen remained under heavy pressure ahead of a Bank of Japan meeting on Friday and traders prepared for more volatility in the currency. Price action in the currency market was relatively subdued on Thursday, compared with the previous day, when the dollar fell almost 1% at one point in the immediate wake of the release of ...

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C$ strengthens as investors cheer U.S. inflation data

The commodity-linked Canadian dollar strengthened against its U.S. counterpart on Wednesday as cooler-than-expected U.S. inflation data bolstered prospects of Federal Reserve rate cuts and potentially the outlook for the global economy. The loonie was trading 0.6% higher at 1.3681 per U.S. dollar, or 73.09 U.S. cents, with the currency rebounding after on Tuesday it touched its weakest intraday level in nearly two months at 1.3791. “A broad U.S. dollar selloff is the driver of Canadian dollar strength today,” said Adam Button, chief currency analyst at ForexLive. “The U.S. inflation numbers ...

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FX Daily: Powell press conference to keep dollar gains in check

USD: The dollar could end up lower on the day A little calm seems to have returned to French government bond markets, where 10-year yields ended yesterday some 10bp off the intra-day highs. We do not think we’ve seen the last of the stress here, but for today the attention switches squarely to the US. The first big release of the day is the May CPI data, where there is a firm consensus around a 0.3% month-on-month core CPI reading. That is not good enough for the Federal Reserve’s 2% ...

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Dollar pauses for breath as market braces for US inflation, Fed test

The dollar steadied on Wednesday after hitting a four-week high against peer currencies the day before as market players awaited key U.S. inflation data and the Federal Reserve’s policy decision and updated economic projections later in the day. The U.S. dollar has rebounded after Friday’s stronger-than-expected jobs report raised the prospect of inflation remaining sticky while growth stays strong, making the U.S. central bank less likely to cut rates in the coming months. Investors will have a chance to assess the inflation situation when U.S. Consumer Price Index numbers are ...

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